2021-05-31-欧洲安全研究所-火与冰_俄土伙伴关系（英文）_70页_5mb

Summary of "FIRE AND ICE: The Russian-Turkish Partnership"

Core Content

This Chaillot Paper by the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) provides a comprehensive analysis of the Russian-Turkish partnership, examining its nature, dynamics, and implications for Europe. The paper highlights the complex and multifaceted relationship between the two authoritarian regimes, which is characterised by both cooperation and competition, and explores how this partnership challenges and interacts with European interests.

Main Views

1. Nature of the Partnership

• The Russian-Turkish relationship is described as a "conflictual camaraderie", where both countries engage in cooperative rivalry.
• Despite clashing interests, especially in the Middle East and post-Soviet regions, they maintain a resilient and strategic partnership.
• Both nations share authoritarian governance models, similar strategic cultures, and geopolitical ambitions.
• They often team up against common rivals, such as the West, and cooperate in areas of mutual interest, including energy, military, and regional influence.

2. Economic Interdependence

• Economic ties are a key pillar of the partnership, with energy and arms trade being central.
• Russia and Turkey have mutually beneficial economic relations, although these are not as strong as their trade with the EU.
• Turkey's 'Southern Gas Corridor' project competes with Russia’s TurkStream initiative, highlighting economic competition.
• The economic interdependence supports domestic political legitimacy for both countries, but it is not sufficient to sustain the partnership alone.
• Sanctions and economic coercion could potentially weaken the partnership, leading to sectoral decoupling.

3. Geopolitical Rivalry and Cooperation

• The partnership is rooted in competition and cooperation across various regions, including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the Western Balkans, and the Black Sea-Caspian region.
• Both countries seek great power status and influence in post-imperial spaces, often positioning themselves as bridges between Europe and Asia.
• Russia emphasizes territorial size, natural resources, and nuclear capabilities, while Turkey focuses on geopolitical position, population growth, and military power.
• The strategic pivot to Asia may reduce the significance of their economic ties, potentially weakening the partnership.

4. Implications for the EU

• The authoritarian tendencies of Russia and Turkey contradict the EU's values of democracy and rule of law.
• Their energy partnership undermines EU efforts at diversification and strengthens Russia's influence over European energy markets.
• The military assertiveness of both powers interferes with the EU's foreign policy agenda, especially in the Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods.
• The preference for unilateralism clashes with the EU's multilateral approach.
• The EU is urged to rethink its strategy towards the Russian-Turkish tandem, including:
  • Robust actions to counter hostile activities.
  • A customised strategy for Turkey.
  • The use of coercive tools such as sanctions.
  • A more coordinated transatlantic response.

Key Findings

• The Russian-Turkish relationship is not purely cooperative or competitive, but a dynamic balance of both.
• Domestic similarities in authoritarian governance and strategic culture are not enough to explain the long-term durability of the partnership.
• Economic interdependence and geopolitical ambitions are crucial drivers of the relationship.
• The future trajectory of the partnership may be affected by internal political shifts, regional developments, and external pressures.
• The EU faces a strategic challenge from this partnership, but also has opportunities to leverage its position and increase influence.

Conclusion

The Russian-Turkish partnership, while complex and resilient, poses significant challenges to the EU’s strategic interests. It is driven by shared authoritarianism, economic interdependence, and geopolitical goals, yet it remains fragile due to mutual suspicion and regional rivalries. The EU must adopt a nuanced and strategic approach to counter the influence of this tandem and protect its own interests in the region.