德国国际安全事务研究所-土耳其和俄罗斯冲突合作的逻辑（英）-2021-34页_1mb

Summary of SWP Research Paper: Turkey and Russia - The Logic of Conflictual Cooperation

Core Content

This SWP Research Paper, authored by Daria Isachenko, explores the complex and often contradictory relationship between Turkey and Russia, focusing on their "logic of conflictual cooperation" since the Cold War. The paper argues that the current partnership between the two countries is not merely a product of personal ties or shared opposition to the West, but is primarily driven by mutual recognition of security interests and strategic interdependence.

Main Points

• Bilateral Cooperation: Relations between Turkey and Russia are fundamentally bilateral and based on shared security interests rather than ideological alignment.
• Security Interests: Both countries support each other in addressing immediate security concerns, especially in the context of regional conflicts like the Syrian crisis.
• Interdependence: The partnership is reinforced by collaborative projects that offer greater mutual benefits than continued conflict.
• Personal Relations: While the personal chemistry between Putin and Erdoğan plays a role, it is secondary to the strategic and economic gains from cooperation.
• Historical Context: The relationship has a long history of both conflict and cooperation, with the 1920s "sincere friendship" and the 2000s "golden decade of friendship" being key periods of close ties.
• NATO and Western Relations: Turkey's NATO membership is central to its Western orientation, but it also provides a platform for dialogue with Russia, highlighting the dual protection Turkey receives from both sides.

Key Information

Mutual Security Interests

• The foundation of Turkish-Russian cooperation lies in the recognition of each other's security concerns.
• Both countries have found that working together on regional issues yields more advantages than continued rivalry.
• In Syria, this dynamic has led to a multidimensional partnership, despite their historical enmity.

Institutional Frameworks

• Turkey's relations with the West are more complex than those with Russia, due to the institutional framework of NATO and the EU.
• The lack of a unified institutional structure with Russia means that cooperation is often based on project-based collaboration rather than a formal alliance.

Historical Shifts

• The 1920s saw a period of "sincere friendship" between the newly formed Turkish Republic and the Soviet Union, rooted in mutual support during the Turkish War of Independence.
• The 1945 Turkish-Soviet Crisis marked a turning point, with Turkey shifting its focus to the West due to perceived Soviet demands and the desire to avoid international isolation.
• In the post-Cold War era, Turkey attempted to build a pan-Turkic alliance, which was met with resistance from Russia and other Turkic states.

The 2000s "Golden Decade"

• The 2000s saw a significant rapprochement between Turkey and Russia, characterized by:
  • The Blue Stream gas pipeline project.
  • The establishment of institutional mechanisms such as the High-Level Cooperation Council, Joint Strategic Planning Group, and Civic Forum.
  • A visa exemption agreement and nuclear cooperation (e.g., Akkuyu nuclear power plant).
• This period of cooperation was seen as unexpected and temporary, but it was driven by shared strategic interests rather than ideological alignment.

The 2015 Crisis and the S-400 Deal

• The 2015 crisis in Syria, marked by the purchase of the S-400 air defense system by Turkey, raised concerns in NATO about Ankara's loyalty.
• Despite the personal rapport between Putin and Erdoğan, the S-400 deal did not lead to a resolution of tensions, showing that personal relations are not the main driver of the partnership.

Conclusion

• Turkish-Russian relations are best understood as a strategic interdependence rather than a purely tactical alliance.
• The West's exclusion of Turkey and Russia is not the sole factor in their cooperation; rather, it is the mutual security interests and collaborative projects that sustain their relationship.
• The ambivalence of Turkey's Western orientation and its geopolitical balancing between East and West are central to understanding the dynamics of Turkish-Russian cooperation.