戴德梁行+2023美国资本市场报告-66页_3mb

报告摘要

A recession is expected to occur in 2023, with potential job losses of around 2.5 million peaking. Core inflation is projected to hover in the 5% range until late 2023, before moderating to target levels by year-end, allowing the Federal Reserve to pivot and start rate cuts in H1 2024.
Economic resilience remains strong despite dramatic rate hikes, but ongoing dislocation poses risks, and recovery is anticipated post-recession.

Property values are expected to decline 25-50% peak-to-trough due to higher rates and reduced demand, with variations by property type (e.g., bottom-tier office facing greater declines). The correction started mid-2022 and CRE debt markets are constrained, with lending volumes significantly below pre-downturn averages.
Key triggers for distress include loan maturities (e.g., $318B office debt maturing through 2025), floating-rate loans, and refinancing challenges. Exposures are concentrated, leading to non-uniform impacts across the industry.
Deal volumes will likely rebound post-Federal Reserve pivot, but remain weak until mid-2024. Opportunities include crystallizing strong cumulative returns for assets bought during dislocation periods.

The Fed is expected to cut rates starting H1 2024, with the 10-year Treasury yield settling around 3.5-4%. This normalization will increase CRE cap rates (e.g., to 6.0-7.5%), pressuring property values but also creating relative value opportunities.
Banking conditions are stable, with higher capital ratios post-GFC, but regional banks' turmoil highlights risks. CMBS and non-agency debt issuance has retreated, impacting lending availability.

Focus on core assets like multifamily and industrial, which have shown income resilience. Acquire stabilized, high-quality properties at attractive levels, and consider distressed opportunities in sectors like retail and office.
For the buy-side, deploy capital in defensive assets with strong tenant credit. Explore debt market strategies, such as floating-rate financing post-Fed pivot, and private credit for senior debt gaps in maturing loans.
Roll over gains from "vintage years" bought during dislocation, aiming for cumulative returns by holding through short-term volatility.

Key indicators (e.g., recession end in Q4 2024) follow a glide path with recovery not far off post-2023 downturn. Long-term CRE underperformance, particularly in office, due to functional obsolescence and WFH trends.
Overall, the current chapter offers exit opportunities and new buyer terms, while the next involves income-focused investments with strong NOIs driving pent-up returns.

Monetize high-quality core assets early for strong cumulative returns.
Acquire distressed or opportunistic assets for repositioning or development in growth sectors like industrial and multifamily.
Leverage private credit and shorter-duration debt strategies post-Fed pivot.
Monitor macroeconomic milestones, as credit flow improves H1 2024, coinciding with potential CRE deal volume pickup.

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