20151217-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an investment analysis summary for the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, including insights on index performance, sector trends, individual stock highlights, valuation metrics, market data, and ETF activity.

Main Points

Market Highlights

• The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, increasing the federal funds rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, with a forecast of 1.375% by the end of next year.
• The U.S. stock market reacted positively to the rate hike, with the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all showing gains.
• The Hong Kong stock market rebounded ahead of the U.S. rate decision, with the HSI and HSCEI both rising.
• Oil prices fell to levels last seen in 2009 due to an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, and investors are advised to avoid oil-related sectors.

Equity Indices

• HSI: Closed at 21,701, up 2.0% daily, down 8.1% year-to-date.
• HSCEI: Closed at 9,539, up 2.1% daily, down 20.4% year-to-date.
• Shanghai Composite: Closed at 3,516, up 0.2% daily, up 8.7% year-to-date.
• Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 2,280, up 0.7% daily, up 61.1% year-to-date.
• DJIA: Closed at 17,749, up 1.3% daily, down 0.4% year-to-date.
• S&P 500: Closed at 2,073, up 1.5% daily, up 0.7% year-to-date.
• Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 5,071, up 1.5% daily, up 7.1% year-to-date.
• FTSE 100: Closed at 6,061, up 0.7% daily, down 7.7% year-to-date.
• DAX: Closed at 10,469, up 0.2% daily, up 6.8% year-to-date.
• CAC 40: Closed at 4,625, up 0.2% daily, up 8.2% year-to-date.
• Nikkei 225: Closed at 19,339, up 1.5% daily, up 10.8% year-to-date.
• Taiwan Weighted: Closed at 8,185, up 1.4% daily, down 12.1% year-to-date.

Hong Kong Market Turnover

• HSI: Turnover of HK$19.9bn, down 2.76% daily.
• HSCCI: Turnover of HK$4.4bn, down 16.55% daily.
• HSCEI: Turnover of HK$13.3bn, up 8.01% daily.
• Main Board: Turnover of HK$67.9bn, up 1.14% daily.

Market Data

• Best Performers:

  • Sinopec (386.HK): Up 13.9% daily, 9.0% in 5 days, 1.0% in 1 month, 33.5% year-to-date.
  • Aluminum Corp-H (2600.HK): Up 11.1% daily, 4.3% in 5 days, -4.8% in 1 month, -33.1% year-to-date.
  • Zhongsheng Group (881.HK): Up 10.0% daily, 1.3% in 5 days, 29.9% in 1 month, -32.4% year-to-date.
  • FDG Electric Vehicles (729.HK): Up 9.7% daily, 9.7% in 5 days, 0.0% in 1 month, 32.5% year-to-date.
  • Polytec Asset HO (208.HK): Up 9.6% daily, 14.3% in 5 days, -16.7% in 1 month, -27.3% year-to-date.

• Worst Performers:

  • GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK): Down 6.8% daily, -12.7% in 5 days, -21.0% in 1 month, -31.1% year-to-date.
  • Beijing Enterprises (392.HK): Down 6.5% daily, -8.0% in 5 days, -10.4% in 1 month, 4.2% year-to-date.
  • Wanda Hotel Dev (169.HK): Down 4.5% daily, 0.0% in 5 days, -2.8% in 1 month, -35.2% year-to-date.
  • China Public Pro (1094.HK): Down 4.0% daily, 19.9% in 5 days, 68.2% in 1 month, 26.9% year-to-date.
  • China Everbr Int (257.HK): Down 3.8% daily, -8.3% in 5 days, -14.5% in 1 month, -11.4% year-to-date.

Sector Performance

• Top Performing Sectors:
  • Oil-related: Up 5.8% daily, -1.5% in 5 days, -9.7% in 1 month.
  • Other Metals: Up 3.1% daily, 0.2% in 5 days, -5.7% in 1 month.
  • Aluminum: Up 2.9% daily, 0.3% in 5 days, -3.6% in 1 month.
  • Technology: Up 2.9% daily, -0.4% in 5 days, 1.1% in 1 month.
  • Agriculture: Up 2.8% daily, -1.8% in 5 days, -12.8% in 1 month.
  • Chinese Telecoms: Up 2.5% daily, 1.4% in 5 days, -4.7% in 1 month.
  • Gaming: Up 2.3% daily, -1.5% in 5 days, -10.8% in 1 month.
  • Gas: Up 2.0% daily, -1.0% in 5 days, -2.5% in 1 month.
  • Consumer Staples: Up 2.0% daily, -1.8% in 5 days, -5.9% in 1 month.
  • Chinese Property: Up 2.0% daily, -2.2% in 5 days, 5.2% in 1 month.
  • Chinese Banks: Up 1.9% daily, 0.1% in 5 days, -4.6% in 1 month.
  • Coal: Up 1.9% daily, -0.9% in 5 days, -7.7% in 1 month.
  • Chinese Insurers: Up 1.9% daily, 0.1% in 5 days, -5.1% in 1 month.
  • Airline: Up 1.7% daily, -0.7% in 5 days, -10.7% in 1 month.
  • Marine: Up 1.4% daily, -7.0% in 5 days, -11.3% in 1 month.

Forward P/E and Valuations

• Hang Seng Index: FY15E P/E of 11.0, long-term average of 11.3, deviation of -2.7%, FY1 EPS growth of -12.9%, FY2 EPS growth of 4.9%.
• HSCEI: FY15E P/E of 7.3, long-term average of 8.5, deviation of -14.3%, FY1 EPS growth of -3.0%, FY2 EPS growth of 3.5%.
• Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E of 15.1, long-term average of 11.0, deviation of +36.5%, FY1 EPS growth of 22.6%, FY2 EPS growth of 10.1%.
• S&P 500: FY15E P/E of 17.6, long-term average of 14.7, deviation of +19.3%, FY1 EPS growth of 5.4%, FY2 EPS growth of 8.7%.

Key Information

Stock in Focus: China State Construction (3311.HK)

• Last Close: HK$13.12
• Entry: HK$12.38
• Target: HK$14.80
• Stop-loss: HK$11.90
• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 20.6%/10.6%/21.5%/19.1%
• Market Cap: HK$53.22bn
• 3M Average Daily Volume: 5.72mn shares
• FY1 Forward P/E: 12.4x
• Reason: Expected strong order growth and business mix improvement, along with potential infrastructure projects in Hong Kong and Macau.

Today's Top Picks

1. Century Sage (1450.HK)

   • Last Trading Day Closing: HK$1.14
   • Purchase Price: Current
   • Target Price: HK$1.30
   • Stop-loss Price: HK$1.05
   • Reason: Awarded bid for the Education and Research Network Project in Bhutan, attractive valuation.

2. ITC Properties (199.HK)

   • Last Trading Day Closing: HK$3.33
   • Purchase Price: Current
   • Target Price: HK$3.60
   • Stop-loss Price: HK$3.20
   • Reason: Expected asset sale to unlock value, potential for a small rebound.

A-share Premium to H-share

• LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108): A-share premium to H-share of 649.0%
• SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033): A-share premium to H-share of 404.9%
• PETROCHINA-H (857): A-share premium to H-share of 91.1%
• CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883): A-share premium to H-share of 180.3%
• SINOPEC SHANG-H (338): A-share premium to H-share of 173.9%
• ICBC-H (1398): A-share premium to H-share of 20.0%
• PING AN-H (2318): A-share premium to H-share of 0.0%
• CHINA COSCO HO-H (1919): A-share premium to H-share of 278.4%
• ZIJIN MINING-H (2899): A-share premium to H-share of 117.7%
• CHINA SHENHUA-H (1088): A-share premium to H-share of 145.9%

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• 2800: TRACKER FUND HK, Price: HK$21.95, 1D chg: 2.09%, 5D chg: -0.23%
• 2828: HS H-SHARE ETF-H, Price: HK$96.30, 1D chg: 2.18%, 5D chg: -1.48%
• 2823: ISHADES FTSE A50, Price: HK$10.58, 1D chg: 0.76%, 5D chg: -3.82%
• 2822: CSOP FTSE CH-HKD, Price: HK$12.66, 1D chg: 0.80%, 5D chg: 0.32%
• 3188: CHINAAMC 300-HKD, Price: HK$44.35, 1D chg: 0.45%, 5D chg: 1.49%
• 82822: CSOP FTSE CH-RMB, Price: HK$10.66, 1D chg: 0.38% (incomplete data)

Summary Table