战略与国际研究中心-The-North-African-Conventional-Military-Balance-in-2000_63页_233kb

North African Conventional Military Balance in 2000: Summary

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the conventional military balance in North Africa during the late 1990s and early 2000s, focusing on military expenditures, arms transfers, and military manpower across four key countries: Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. It highlights the decline in military spending and arms imports relative to economic growth and government budgets, as well as the reduction in military capabilities and the shift in military priorities.

Main Points

Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers

• Decline in Expenditures and Imports: North African military expenditures and arms imports in constant dollars dropped significantly from the 1980s to the mid-1990s, reaching low levels by global standards.
• Percentage of GNP and Government Expenditures: Military spending as a percentage of GNP and central government expenditures declined sharply, indicating a reduced military role in the region's economic priorities.
• Relative to Economic Growth: The decline in military spending and arms imports was more pronounced compared to economic growth and total government spending, especially between 1984 and 1994.

Arms Imports by Country

• Morocco: Arms imports declined over time, with major suppliers including France, the US, and others. The total arms imports were relatively small compared to its overall imports.
• Algeria: Arms imports also declined, with France and the Soviet Union as major suppliers. The country's focus shifted to internal security forces.
• Libya: Arms imports fell significantly, with a sharp decline in the 1990s. Major suppliers included the Soviet Union, China, and others.
• Tunisia: Arms imports decreased, with France and the US being the primary suppliers. The trend shows a reduction in military spending as a percentage of total imports.

Military Manpower Trends

• Overall Decline: Military manpower in all four countries decreased over the years, reflecting reduced military activity and a shift towards smaller, more professional forces.
• Service Distribution: The distribution of military manpower across different services (e.g., land, air, naval) varied, with some countries maintaining a higher proportion in certain branches.
• Morocco: Military manpower remained relatively stable, but the percentage of total manpower in the military decreased.
• Algeria: The country saw a significant reduction in military manpower, particularly in the late 1990s.
• Libya: Military manpower declined, with a noticeable drop in the 1990s.
• Tunisia: Military manpower remained relatively constant, but the proportion of the population in the military decreased.

Military Equipment

• Armor and Tanks: The number of main battle tanks and armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) in North Africa decreased significantly, especially in Libya and Algeria.
• Modern Equipment: There was a noticeable shift towards modern and medium-quality equipment, but the overall numbers remained low.
• Air Forces: The number of fixed combat aircraft and armed helicopters declined, with a reduction in both active and modern aircraft.
• Naval Forces: Naval ship inventories also decreased, with a focus on smaller, less advanced vessels.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The data is adapted from the Bureau of Arms Control in the US State Department (formerly ACDA), the IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies), and other intelligence sources.
• Time Period: The analysis covers the period from 1984 to 2000, with a focus on the 1990s.
• Comparative Analysis: The document compares North African military spending and arms imports with those of the Middle East and developing nations, showing that North Africa's military spending was a minor portion of the global arms market.
• Statism: The concept of "statism" is discussed in the context of how military spending and arms imports were managed by the governments of North African states, often in response to regional security concerns and internal stability needs.

Summary of Trends

• Military Spending: All four countries saw a decline in military spending relative to their economic growth and government budgets.
• Arms Imports: There was a notable decrease in arms imports, especially in the 1990s, with the exception of some years.
• Manpower Reduction: Military manpower decreased across the region, indicating a trend towards smaller, more efficient forces.
• Equipment Modernization: While the number of modern equipment increased, the overall military capability remained low compared to global standards.
• Regional Security Context: The decline in military spending and arms imports was influenced by regional security dynamics and the need to allocate resources to economic development and internal security.

Conclusion

The North African conventional military balance in the late 1990s and early 2000s showed a marked reduction in military expenditures and arms imports relative to economic and government spending. This decline was accompanied by a reduction in military manpower and a shift towards more modern and efficient equipment. The analysis highlights the changing priorities of North African states, moving away from large-scale military build-up towards a more restrained and economically focused approach.