群邑-2020年英国广告业年终报告（英文）-2020.12-14页_572kb

U.K. End-of-Year Forecast Summary (December 2020)

Core Content Overview

This document presents GroupM's end-of-year forecast for the U.K. advertising market in 2020 and projections for 2021 and beyond. It outlines the impact of the pandemic, Brexit uncertainty, and evolving consumer behavior on different media channels, emphasizing the shift toward digital advertising and the challenges faced by traditional media.

Key Trends and Forecasts

2020 Overview

• The U.K. experienced a significant economic and social impact from the pandemic, with government support measures such as the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme and stamp duty holiday helping to mitigate some of the damage.
• A "second wave" of restrictions emerged, raising concerns about compliance and the sustainability of recovery efforts.

2021 and Beyond Outlook

• Normalcy is expected to return by mid-2021 with the rollout of effective vaccines, although challenges from the pandemic and Brexit will persist.
• Brexit uncertainty is still a factor, but the impact on the advertising market is anticipated to be a shift in spending rather than a full-year decline.
• The total advertising market is expected to rebound in 2021, with growth in key categories like non-essential retail, finance, and automotive.

Media-Specific Analysis

Digital

• Pure-play digital advertising is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2020, followed by 12% in 2021.
• E-commerce-related advertising is expected to grow by 50% in 2020 and 66% in 2021, reaching £2.4 billion in media owner ad revenue by 2024.
• Search advertising will remain flat in 2020 but is expected to grow by 7.5% in 2021.
• Display and other digital formats will see better growth due to increased spending from SMEs.
• Digital advertising now accounts for 70% of the total industry ad revenue, indicating its dominance and the challenge of further growth.

Television

• TV advertising is expected to fall by 10% in 2020, the worst decline since 2009.
• A rebound of 10% in 2021 and a return to 2019 levels in 2022 is anticipated.
• Traditional ad-supported TV remains crucial for brand-building, while SVOD services draw consumption.
• Programmatic and addressable advertising are being adopted to enhance value.

Print

• Print media will account for 7% of ad revenue in 2020, down from 9% in 2019.
• Newsbrands are expected to decline by 28% in 2020, followed by a 17% rebound in 2021.
• Consumer magazines are projected to decline by 12% in 2020 and grow by 6% in 2021.
• B2B magazines are expected to see a decline of 15% in 2020, with a modest recovery in 2021.

Out-of-Home (OOH)

• OOH advertising is expected to decline by 45% in 2020, but rebound by 31% in 2021.
• Digital formats within OOH will continue to grow, representing 60% of the medium's activity.
• Government spending on public health messaging and the return of social activities will support recovery.

Cinema

• Cinema advertising is projected to decline by 80% in 2020, but rebound by 160% in 2021.
• This rebound is expected to bring cinema back to 52% of pre-pandemic levels, assuming a vaccine rollout by mid-2021.
• The rise of direct-to-consumer platforms may pose a long-term challenge to cinema's relevance.

Audio

• Radio advertising is expected to fall by 16% in 2020, with a projected growth of 12% in 2021.
• Audio's appeal is limited, accounting for 2% of total industry spending, but new formats like podcasts and digital audio offer growth opportunities.
• Smaller advertisers may shift budgets to other digital platforms, affecting growth potential.

Conclusion

• Industry average growth rates are not sufficient for marketers under current economic conditions.
• Above average growth is crucial, and this often requires strategic decisions that diverge from conventional practices.
• Marketers should focus on understanding evolving consumer needs and investing in new ways to transact.
• Digital media continues to be the dominant force, with e-commerce advertising as a key driver of growth.
• While traditional media faces challenges, innovation and adaptation could lead to improved prospects.

Media Share Projections (2021)

• Total TV: 18.2%
• Total Radio: 2.2%
• Total National Newsbrands: 5.2%
• Total Consumer Magazines: 2.2%
• Total Outdoor: 3.2%
• Total Cinema: 0.5%
• Total Pure-Play Internet: 68.5%

Notes on Methodology

• Forecasts are based on GroupM's client base and historical data from various industry sources.
• The data is subject to change and accuracy is not guaranteed beyond the latest available information.
• GroupM's forecast highlights the importance of digital transformation and the resilience of certain sectors despite the pandemic's impact.