2021年年中英国广告报告（英）-12页_722kb

U.K. Mid-Year Advertising Market Forecast - June 2021

Core Content Overview

GroupM's June 2021 mid-year forecast highlights the ongoing recovery and growth of the U.K. advertising market, which is expected to experience secular growth in 2021. The market is rebounding strongly from the pandemic-related decline, with a 24% growth in total advertising revenue anticipated for the year. This growth is projected to continue, with a 10% CAGR since 2019, indicating a sustained upward trend.

The forecast underscores that the recovery is uneven across media channels, with some experiencing rapid growth while others face continued decline. The report also outlines the evolving landscape of advertising, particularly in response to changing consumer behavior, new technologies, and regulatory shifts.

Main Points and Key Insights

1. Overall Market Recovery

• The U.K. advertising market is recovering strongly from the pandemic.
• The total market is expected to grow by 24% in 2021, with a 10% CAGR since 2019.
• The economy is rebounding, with real GDP growth expectations rising from 4.6% in mid-March to 5.9% in late May.
• Real household disposable income has reached post-war highs, largely due to government fiscal support, including the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.
• The Bank of England estimates that households will spend around 10% of excess savings over the next three years, up from the 5% assumed in its February report.

2. Television Advertising

• Television advertising is expected to grow by 13% in 2021, reaching £4,324.3m.
• The recovery is uneven, with digital media outperforming traditional TV.
• Linear TV remains a key medium for large advertisers due to its mass reach and brand-building capabilities.
• Consumer behavior changes and increased flexibility in scheduling are driving demand, especially in the second quarter.
• Streaming video services are a growing threat, with U.S. media owners investing heavily in content.
• The government's HFSS ban could force advertisers to rethink their strategies, but the report suggests it may not significantly impact the overall market.

3. Digital Advertising

• Digital advertising is experiencing rapid growth, expected to increase by 27% in 2021.
• It is projected to account for 77% of all tracked advertising in 2021, growing to 82% of the industry by 2026.
• The growth is driven by performance-based marketers, app developers, and companies reliant on digital services.
• China's increased spending on global markets, including the U.K., has also contributed to digital growth.
• Digital media owners are improving buying and measurement solutions, enhancing the value of digital inventory for advertisers.

4. Other Media Channels

Audio

• Audio advertising is expected to grow by 11.8% in 2021, with 12% growth for 2021 and 3% for 2022.
• The medium is recovering and is projected to almost return to 2019 levels by 2022.
• Podcast advertising is gaining attention and may drive low-single-digit growth if it can deliver on expectations.

Print

• Print media is expected to continue its decline, but some media owners are diversifying into commerce and events to maintain relevance.
• The pace of decline is slowing as the industry undergoes rationalisation.

Out-of-Home (OOH)

• OOH advertising is expected to grow by 31% in 2021, following a 46% decline in 2020.
• It is projected to be the fastest-growing channel after digital, with dynamic creativity and real-time deployment enhancing its appeal.

Cinema

• Cinema advertising has seen a significant rebound, growing by 72.4% in 2021.
• However, the market is still recovering from the pandemic, with growth expected to slow in subsequent years.

Pure-Play Internet

• Pure-play internet advertising is growing at a high rate, with 27.3% growth in 2021.
• Search advertising has grown consistently, with 16.7% growth in 2021.
• Non-search, ex-commerce and e-commerce advertising are also growing, with e-commerce reaching £4,431.8m by 2026.

Key Information Summary

• Total Advertising Revenue: Expected to grow by 24% in 2021, with a 10% CAGR since 2019.
• Market Recovery: Driven by economic rebound, government support, and consumer behavior shifts.
• Digital Dominance: Expected to grow to 77% of total advertising in 2021 and 82% by 2026.
• TV Recovery: Strong growth expected, but uneven with linear TV still valued for mass reach and brand building.
• Streaming Competition: Threatens traditional TV, especially as U.S. media owners invest in content and global distribution.
• OOH Growth: Expected to be the fastest-growing media channel after digital, due to technological advancements.
• Regulatory Impact: The HFSS ban may force a shift in advertising strategies, but not necessarily a market decline.
• Print Decline: Expected to continue, though some media owners are diversifying into commerce and events.
• Cinema and Internet: Both showing strong growth, with cinema rebounding sharply after the pandemic.

Conclusion

GroupM's forecast indicates that the U.K. advertising market is on a path to recovery, with digital leading the charge and TV and OOH following closely behind. While some channels are declining, they still offer growth opportunities for strategic advertisers. The market is evolving, with technological innovation, changing consumer habits, and regulatory changes shaping the future of advertising in the U.K.