20230504-建信期货-橡胶月报_12页_4mb

Summary of Rubber Market Report

Key Findings from April 2023 Rubber Market Report

• Supply Dynamics: Rubber supply faced challenges in April due to weather issues, particularly in the Yunnan region of China, where drought and disease delayed the start of the new planting season. Production in Thailand remained low due to the seasonal low-production period. Overall supply was expected to normalize in May if rains continue, but high inventory levels sustained at high historical points continue to pressure prices.

• Demand Factors: The tire industry showed reduced production in April, with full-size tire开工 load decreasing due to inventory build-up and weaker export orders. whilesemi-size tires saw modest declines, likely due to the May holiday period. Auto sales, including those affecting rubber demand, indicated growth but with cumulative inventory concerns.

• Inventory Levels: inventories remained at high historical levels, contributing to downward pressure on rubber prices. specific data showed increases in both保税区 and general trade inventories.

• Price Outlook: The market is expected to remain震荡偏弱 (weak and oscillatory) through May, driven by supply normalizations, high inventories, and subdued demand. no strong upside factors were identified.

• Additional Notes: Data sources include Wind,卓创资讯, and海关统计, highlighting imports and pricing trends for泰国 and China markets.