2025-05-29-Jefferies-礼来（LLY）_礼来在疼痛领域加倍下注_14页_2mb

Eli Lilly (LLY) announced the acquisition of SiteOne Therapeutics for up to $1 billion, including upfront payments and milestones, to gain full rights to STC-004, an oral Nav1.8 inhibitor for chronic pain. This Phase 2-ready asset enhances LLY's existing pain portfolio with a novel mechanism of action, potentially enabling once-daily dosing and rapid entry into chronic pain indications like diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (DPN).

Key deal rationale:

• STC-004 complements LLY's non-opioid pain strategies and aligns with ongoing Phase 2 trials for P2X7 inhibitors and other mechanisms.
• The company models a risk-adjusted price-sales (PS) estimate of approximately $614 million with a 15% probability of success in DPN, which addresses potential patient population of 10 million or more.

STC-004 Phase 1 data indicates good pharmacokinetics (supports QD dosing with faster absorption than Jurnavx) and safety, with no serious adverse events. Efficacy shows improved pain tolerance in healthy volunteers, though further studies needed for clinical endpoints.

LLY's investment thesis emphasizes growth in GLP-1 and Alzheimer's drugs, with a Buy recommendation and 12-month price target of $1,057 (+47% from prior close), based on positive net present value (NPV) and strong long-term market potential. Broader outlook highlights peak sales for GLP-1 and Alzheimer's assets, driving continued revenue and EPS growth.