2025-06-15-花旗集团-礼来公司（LLY）_礼来公司（LLY.N）_所有替尔泊肽剂量现已在LillyDirect上提供_增加患者可及性_10页_282kb

Eli Lilly announced that all approved doses of tirzepatide (Zepbound), including 12.5mg and 15mg, will be available through LillyDirect, which helps maintain supply and addresses potential shortages. This move also combats compounders, as CFO Lucas Montarce stated the company avoids partnerships with telehealth firms offering compounded products. The addition of higher doses via self-pay channels is expected to drive incremental revenues, supported by growing employer opt-in rates.

Citi Research maintains a "Buy" recommendation with a target price of $1,190, expecting a 45.2% share price return. Key factors include improving US script trends and positive early feedback on overseas launches, indicating tirzepatide's momentum. Valuation is based on a DCF model with a 7% WACC and 2.6% terminal growth rate.

Upside risks include higher adoption of Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's drug donanemebeyond expectations, positive pipeline developments (e.g., retatrutide), and minimal impact from IRA price negotiations. Downside risks involve confirmed adverse events, US rebate reform, and formulary edits from generic semaglutide starting in 2032E.

The analysis highlights Eli Lilly's expanding access, strong market positioning, and growth potential in its tirzepatide portfolio and broader pipeline, supporting the Buy recommendation with a 25% potential upside.