2025-06-13-Jefferies-礼来（LLY）_礼来公司（LLY）_Eloralintide在ADA会议上的摘要看起来很有趣_16页_3mb

Eli Lilly & Company (LLY) Equity Research Summary

June 13, 2025

Core Analysis

1. Elora (Elora):

   • Profile: Elora is a fully amylin-biased drug with Phase 1 data from the American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference (presentation on June 22) showing a mean weight loss (WL) of -2.6% to -11.3% at week 12. The highest dose achieved -11.3% WL in obese/overweight patients.
   • Safety: Tolerability is favorable, with 10% diarrhea, 8% nausea, and 4% vomiting reported; most adverse events (TEAEs) are mild. This compares better than other amylin compounds like Cagrilintide and MET-233i.
   • Competitive Edge: Head-to-head preclinical data with Cagrilintide shows Elora reduces lean mass loss and fat mass more effectively at the same weight reduction.

2. LLY’s Strategy:

   • Focus on Combinations: LLY is conducting Phase 2 trials combining Elora with Tirzepatide (ongoing trials). The ability to co-formulate at neutral pH enhances scalability and may improve patient experience versus dual-chamber injectors used by competitors.
   • Combo Potential: Amylin + GIP/GLP-1 combos demonstrate superior lean mass preservation during weight loss, which the market views as a key theme in obesity treatment.

3. Market Target & Valuation:

   • Investment Thesis: LLY is bullish on GLP-1 and oral Orophaglipron, targeting ~$80B (current GLP-1) to ~$150B (long-term). Buy Rating ($1,057) +29% upside; down-side case $450 (-45%).
   • Growth Drivers: Revenue/growth expectations up to 2026 (FY E: $73B revenue, $31.97 EPS).

Key Takeaways

• Elora’s Potential: Best-in-class amylin (ELORA) with strong weight loss profile and tolerance.
• LLY Positioning: Well-positioned to win the amylin combo race; targeting superior body composition (lean mass preservation).
• Competition: SC Amycretin (Novo Nordisk) feared due to higher side effects (31% nausea, 38% vomiting).
• Analyst Consensus: Elora data supports LLY's thesis that calcitonin doesn't contribute significantly to efficacy.

Summary

• Buy Rating: $1,057 (29% upside).
• Market View: Best-in-class potential for amylin-biased drugs if combined with GLP-1s for lean mass preservation.