2025-06-11-花旗集团-礼来公司（LLY）_礼来公司（LLY.N）_CVS的1_1行动在社交媒体渠道上遭到试图保持Zepbound用药患者的抵制_10页_282kb

Eli Lilly (LLY.N) - Citi Research Summary

Key Points:

• CVS Decision: CVS Caremark is removing tirzepatide (Zepbound) from its templated formulary, which has sparked patient objections. A Change.org petition has garnered over 14k signatures, and social media channels (e.g., Reddit) are experiencing pushback from patients seeking to retain the drug.

• Analyst View: Citi Research maintains a Buy recommendation with a target price of $1,190, projecting ~47.4% expected total return driven by 48.2% expected total return from price appreciation and dividend yield (0.7%). Patient demand is described as reaching "critical volume."

• Valuation: A DCF-based valuation of $1,190 is set, with assumptions of a 7% WACC and 2.6% terminal growth rate.

• Risks & Upsides:

  • Risks: Adoption challenges for tirzepatide due to adverse events, potential US rebate reform, and competition from generics starting in 2032.
  • Upsides: Stronger-than-expected adoption of Alzheimer's drug donanemab, positive pipeline developments for drugs like retatrutetide and orforglipron, and lower-than-expected impact of IRA negotiations on Trulicity/Verzenio.

• Additional Context:

  • Patient Response: High awareness on social media; patients are advocating via Congressional appeals and medical exceptions.
  • Employer Opt-ins: Incremental progress from 40s to 50s opt-ins suggests patient demand is mounting.
  • Analyst Disclosure: Analysts affiliated with Citi Research have potential conflicts of interest, and the firm holds financial stakes in Eli Lilly, which could influence the analysis.

Summary Note: Citi Research sees significant patient engagement as a potential factor in reversing CVS's decision, while also highlighting growth potential in Eli Lilly's broader pipeline and Alzheimer's drug. The stock is positioned as offering strong total return potential, though risks around competition and adoption loom large.