2024-06-10-世界银行-黎巴嫩2024年贫困与公平评估-经受住旷日持久的危机（英）_84页_8mb

Lebanon Poverty and Equity Assessment 2024: Weathering a Protracted Crisis Summary

Executive Summary

Lebanon's protracted economic crisis since 2019 has significantly worsened poverty and inequality. Monetary poverty tripled from 12% in 2012 to 44% in 2022 in surveyed areas, with deeper poverty for the poor. Income inequality rose, and food insecurity increased. Labor markets deteriorated, with rising informality. Households primarily used savings, loans, and reduced consumption to cope, but poverty rates remain high. Comprehensive reforms, social safety nets, and better data are essential for sustainable recovery.

Key Findings

1. Poverty Trends

• Poverty rates surged from 12% in 2012 to 44% in 2022, with one in three Lebanese living in poverty.
• The rich saw their incomes decline less, while the poor lost purchasing power dramatically due to inflation.
• Inequality widened, with a higher gap in consumption between the rich and the poor.
• Poverty is more severe in northern governorates (e.g., Akkar and North Lebanon), which also have higher informal employment.

2. Labor Markets

• Labor force participation declined, with higher female labor force participation in non-poor households.
• Informality increased sharply, particularly after 2019, limiting job security for the poor.
• Syrians faced systemic barriers to formal employment, with most in low-skilled jobs.
• Lebanese shifted to lower-skilled jobs post-2019, contributing to rising skill mismatches.

3. Household Responses

• Households coped through savings depletion (87%), loans, reduced consumption, and reliance on social networks.
• The poor reduced spending on health and education more than the better-off.
• Syrians relied more on external aid, while Lebanese used savings and social support.
• Food insecurity rose, with many reducing dietary diversity to meet basic needs.

4. Multidimensional Poverty

• Multidimensional poverty (78.8% in 2022) increased due to limited access to health insurance, education, reliable electricity, and transportation.
• Syrians experienced higher poverty levels than Lebanese, reflecting barriers to asset ownership and employment opportunities.

5. Key Challenges

• Currency devaluation and high inflation disproportionately hurt those paid in Lebanese pounds.
• Public services (electricity, healthcare, education) are underfunded and inaccessible for the poor.
• The ongoing Gaza conflict further exacerbates economic instability.

Recommendations

Mitigating Poverty and Inequality

• Comprehensive reforms: Establish a sustainable exchange rate system, reform taxes, and stabilize banks.
• Strengthen social safety nets: Expand cash transfers, health insurance, and education support for vulnerable groups.
• Boost human capital: Invest in quality education and healthcare to build household resilience.

Enhancing Economy and Job Creation

• Promote formal employment through regulatory reforms, better labor market information, and incentives.
• Improve access to credit and reduce transaction costs to support small businesses and micro-enterprises.

Improving Data and Monitoring

• Enhance the statistical system to collect nationwide data and update the poverty line.
• Regularly track poverty and labor market trends to design targeted policies.

Limitations

Data Collection Challenges

• Sample covered only five governorates (Akkar, Beirut, Bekaa, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon), representing ~60% of the population.
• Syrian poverty data faces additional constraints due to political limitations and data accessibility issues.

Methodological Constraints

• Poverty line updated for 2022 may not capture the full impact of the crisis due to changing consumption patterns.
• Note: Not all governorates have comprehensive data, limiting holistic analysis.

Methodology and Collaborators

This assessment leveraged multiple data sources, including the 2011/2012 Household Budget Survey, 2018/2019 Labor Force Survey, and the 2022/2023 Lebanon Household Survey. Collaborators include the World Bank, WFP, UNHCR, and the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS).

Acknowledgments

This assessment was developed with input from government authorities, international organizations, and local partners under the World Bank’s support for Lebanon.