【世界经济论坛】高排放行业：低碳供应商的挑战与机遇_66页_5mb

Summary of "High-Emitting Sectors: Challenges and Opportunities for Low-Carbon Suppliers"

Core Content

This document, developed in collaboration with Deloitte, explores the challenges and opportunities for low-carbon suppliers in six high-emitting sectors: aviation, shipping, trucking, aluminium, cement and concrete, and steel. It also highlights the role of the First Movers Coalition (FMC) and the First Suppliers Hub (FSH) in driving the adoption of breakthrough low-carbon technologies.

Main Points

• FMC Commitment: The FMC is a global initiative that encourages large-scale demand for low-carbon goods. Members pledge to purchase goods that meet science-based emission reduction targets.
• First Suppliers Hub (FSH): A global platform for suppliers to share information on low-carbon projects and connect with buyers, policymakers, and financiers.
• Decarbonization Pathways: Each sector has specific technologies and strategies to reduce emissions, including sustainable fuels, alternative propulsion, and carbon capture and storage (CCUS).
• Challenges for Suppliers:
  • Lack of standardized emissions measurement and reporting methods.
  • Limited availability and high cost of low-carbon inputs.
  • Buyers' reluctance and unfamiliarity with low-carbon solutions.
• Opportunities for Suppliers:
  • Collaborative initiatives and policy support.
  • Growing public and regulatory interest in reducing emissions.
  • Innovative business models and financial incentives.

Key Sectors and Their Analysis

1. Aviation

• Current Emissions Profile: Aviation accounts for ~3% of global GHG emissions, with high fuel consumption and limited viable alternatives.
• FMC Commitment: By 2030, airlines and purchasers will replace at least 5% of conventional jet fuel with sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) with ≥85% GHG emissions reduction.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF): Includes biofuels and synthetic fuels (e.g., HEFA, PtL).
  • Alternative Propulsion Technologies: Battery-electric, hydrogen turbine, and fuel cells.
• Challenges:
  • High production costs and price premiums.
  • Uncertain demand signals and inconsistent policy regimes.
  • Limited feedstock availability for SAF.
• Opportunities:
  • Growing public interest in reducing emissions.
  • Flexible offtake agreements and "book and claim" schemes.
  • Strategic partnerships and investment in emerging technologies.

2. Shipping

• Current Emissions Profile: Shipping contributes ~2% of global GHG emissions.
• FMC Commitment: Shipping companies and purchasers aim to adopt low-carbon fuels like methanol and ammonia by 2030.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Low-carbon hydrogen and sustainable CO2.
  • Alternative fuels such as methanol and ammonia.
  • Vessels capable of using zero-emission fuels.
• Challenges:
  • High cost of low-emission fuels compared to fossil fuels.
  • Difficulty in securing funding with appropriate risk appetite.
  • Gaps in offtake volumes and green premium expectations.
• Opportunities:
  • Policy mechanisms like carbon taxes and mass-balance systems.
  • Regional regulatory bodies setting ambitious GHG reduction targets.
  • Collaborative initiatives to de-risk investments.

3. Trucking

• Current Emissions Profile: Trucking contributes ~4% of global GHG emissions.
• FMC Commitment: Focus on zero-tail-pipe emission fuels and alternative propulsion.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).
  • Fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).
  • Use of alternative fuels and charging infrastructure.
• Challenges:
  • High costs of transitioning to low-carbon technologies.
  • Limited hydrogen refuelling infrastructure.
  • Difficulty in managing large EV fleets and securing power allocation.
• Opportunities:
  • Innovative business models like trucking-as-a-service (TaaS).
  • Collective charging farms to share costs.
  • Tax credits and grants in some countries.

4. Aluminium

• Current Emissions Profile: Aluminium contributes ~2% of global GHG emissions.
• FMC Commitment: Adoption of emissions-free smelting technologies and renewable energy use.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Inert anodes and carbon-chlorination.
  • Use of green hydrogen and renewable energy in electrolysis.
  • CCUS and alternative feedstocks.
• Challenges:
  • High cost of scaling-up emerging technologies.
  • Mature recycling industry limits room for improvement.
  • Lack of global standards for low-carbon aluminium.
• Opportunities:
  • Partnerships with waste management and governments.
  • Preparation of procurement-ready documentation.
  • Shaping standards and regulations for alternative chemistries.

5. Cement and Concrete

• Current Emissions Profile: Cement and concrete contribute ~6% of global GHG emissions.
• FMC Commitment: Adoption of non-fossil alternatives and CCUS.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Use of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs).
  • Alternative chemistries and processes.
  • Point-source CCUS.
• Challenges:
  • High costs of decarbonization.
  • Competition for investment with other sectors.
  • Scarcity of key inputs like SCMs.
• Opportunities:
  • Shaping standards and regulations for alternative chemistries.
  • Policy mechanisms like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
  • Collaborative approaches with regional value chain partners.

6. Steel

• Current Emissions Profile: Steel contributes ~8% of global GHG emissions.
• FMC Commitment: Adoption of low-carbon steel production methods.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • DRI-EAF and Scrap-EAF processes.
  • Use of low-carbon hydrogen and biogas.
  • Alternative reducing agents like biomass or hydrogen.
• Challenges:
  • High costs of low-carbon steel production.
  • Long life-cycle and high costs of major steelmaking assets.
  • Absence of global standards and definitions.
• Opportunities:
  • Policy mechanisms to balance transition costs.
  • First-movers with strong demand signals can drive innovation.
  • Collaborative efforts to de-risk low-carbon technologies.

7. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

• Current Emissions Profile: CDR is a critical component for achieving net-zero, especially in sectors where decarbonization is challenging.
• FMC Commitment: Encouraging the adoption of CDR technologies.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Direct air capture with carbon storage (DACCS).
  • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
  • Biochar and enhanced rock weathering (ERW).
• Challenges:
  • High costs and lack of mature MRV standards.
  • Limited policy support and scalability.
  • Perceived as a way to legitimize continued emissions.
• Opportunities:
  • Leveraging collective purchasing power.
  • Transparent and responsible behavior to build credibility.
  • Developing MRV systems with trusted third parties.

Cross-Sector Challenges and Opportunities

• Lack of Emissions Measurement Methods: Suppliers need to advocate for sector-specific standards and methodologies to ensure credibility and attract buyers and financing.
• Availability and Cost of Inputs: Strategic location decisions, collaborations, and engagement with governments and financiers can help suppliers secure necessary inputs and reduce costs.
• Buyers' Risk Aversion: Suppliers can use innovative contracting and education to mitigate risks and demonstrate the value of low-carbon solutions.

Conclusion

The World Economic Forum and Deloitte emphasize the importance of collaboration, innovation, and policy support in scaling low-carbon technologies. They encourage stakeholders to explore the resources available through the FMC and FSH to accelerate the transition to net-zero emissions in high-emitting sectors.