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European Electrification and Energy Transition Report Summary (January 24, 2022)

Overview

• Report Focus: Explores the rise of electrification in European economies as the primary driver for decarbonization, with strong market implications.

Key Findings

Electrification Process

• The EU’s Fit for 55 plan aims for a 55% emission reduction by 2030, achieved through heavy reliance on electrification.
• Sectors involved: Mobility, real estate (heating), manufacturing, and green hydrogen.
• By 2030, electricity could represent ~50% of Europe’s primary energy consumption (currently ~20%).

Power Demand

• Electrification could lead to a ~50% increase in power demand by 2030, reversing a 15-year negative trend.
• Example: An average electric vehicle (EV) consumes ~3 MWh/year, equivalent to a household’s annual usage.

Capital Needs

• Europe must mobilize €3.7 trillion by 2030 to achieve climate goals.
  • ~€2.2 trillion (55% of total) may be privately funded.
• Utilities sector could see ~€3 trillion EUR in capex, up 160%-320% from current levels.

Supply/Demand Imbalance

• Closure of legacy power plants (e.g., ~4 GW by 2025) combined with supply chain delays may tighten markets, supporting higher power prices until ~2025.

Intrinsic Value & Investment Thesis

• Three key consequences for Green Energy Majors (GEMS):
  1. Much higher returns than expected.
  2. Double-digit earnings growth to 2027E (twice the market average).
  3. Significant intrinsic value creation, even at a ~50 basis point increase in WACC.

Electrification Impact on Households

• Full electrification (EV + heat pump) could triple household power consumption, equivalent to tripling the population.
• Potential energy bill savings: ~€2,100/year by 2030, implying a 50% reduction (~€2,400/year savings vs. NAFA 2050 projection).

Disclosure

This report analyzes the investments, energy, and environmental sectors in Europe. Analysts are third-party independent security analysts. All views reflect personal opinions and do not imply a conflict of interest. For regulatory disclosures, see Goldman Sachs.