Investment Daily Note Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the current market trends, stock performance, and valuation metrics in the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets. It includes insights into major indices, key stocks, sector performance, and other financial indicators such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.
Main Points and Key Information
Market Highlights
- Baidu and Ctrip Deal: Baidu announced a share swap deal with Ctrip, acquiring a 25% stake, while Ctrip would acquire a 45% stake in Qunar. This consolidation may lead to more M&A activity in the Internet and technology sectors.
- Quarterly Results: Several large-cap companies are expected to release quarterly results, which could influence market direction in the coming weeks, especially with the backdrop of the 5th Plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party.
Equity Indices
| Index |
Close |
Daily Change (%) |
YTD Change (%) |
| Hang Seng Index |
23,116 |
-0.2 |
-2.1 |
| HSCEI |
10,748 |
+0.1 |
-10.3 |
| Shanghai Comp |
3,430 |
+0.5 |
+6.0 |
| Shenzhen Comp |
2,030 |
+0.7 |
+43.5 |
| DJIA |
17,623 |
-0.1 |
-1.1 |
| S&P 500 |
2,071 |
-0.2 |
+0.6 |
| Nasdaq Comp |
5,035 |
+0.1 |
+6.3 |
| FTSE 100 |
6,417 |
-0.4 |
-2.3 |
| DAX |
10,801 |
+0.1 |
+10.2 |
| CAC 40 |
4,897 |
-0.5 |
+14.6 |
| Nikkei 225 |
18,899 |
-0.3 |
+8.3 |
| Taiwan Weighted |
8,745 |
+0.8 |
-6.0 |
Hong Kong Market Turnover
| Index |
Turnover (HK$bn) |
Daily Change (%) |
| HSI |
21.1 |
-11.07% |
| HSCCI |
5.4 |
-19.63% |
| HSCEI |
14.9 |
+19.09% |
| Main Board |
72.8 |
+0.38% |
External Market Conditions
- Energy Shares: Declined due to lower oil prices and anticipation of the Fed's meeting.
- U.S. Equities: Mixed performance with the Dow down 23 points, S&P 500 down 3 points, and NASDAQ up 2 points.
- ADR Impact: ADRs dropped, effectively lowering HSI by 37 points.
- Commodity Prices: Oil prices fell due to global supply glut and weakening demand. Gold prices rose slightly.
Yesterday's Hong Kong Equities
- Rate Cut Impact: The PBOC cut rates by 0.25%, but the market did not respond positively. HSI closed down 35 points, while HSCEI rose 5 points.
- Property Sector: Benefited from the rate cut, with notable gains in property stocks.
- Standard Chartered: Closed at HK$87.90 on its first day of listing, down from its offer price.
Trends of HSI and HSCEI
- HSI: Opened high but closed low.
- HSCEI: Testing the resistance level of the July 8th low.
Stock in Focus: Standard Chartered (2888.HK)
- Valuation: The share price has been on a downtrend for nearly three years.
- Performance: The bank's performance worsened with falling commodity prices due to its focus on emerging markets.
- Risk Factors: Loan loss provisions have increased significantly, but the rate of increase is slowing, suggesting the issue may have peaked.
- Investment Signal: The current price is seen as a "buy" signal, with a target at HK$110 and a stop loss at HK$71.50.
Today's Top Picks
- Landing Intl (582): Target price HK$0.260, stop loss HK$0.232, due to a high risk-to-reward ratio.
- Chaoda Modern (682): Target price HK$0.380, stop loss HK$0.330, as the share price rose above the 10-day moving average.
Sector Performance Overview
Best Performing Sectors
| Sector |
Daily Change (%) |
5D Change (%) |
1M Change (%) |
| Agriculture |
+3.5 |
+8.3 |
+21.8 |
| Brokerages |
+2.4 |
+1.5 |
+17.4 |
| Gaming |
+1.5 |
-4.2 |
+13.6 |
| Department Store |
+1.3 |
+2.9 |
+8.2 |
| Sports Accessories |
+1.0 |
+1.4 |
+8.9 |
| Automobile |
+0.9 |
+2.0 |
+23.5 |
| Chinese Property |
+0.9 |
+2.6 |
+16.4 |
| Chinese Telecoms |
+0.7 |
-1.3 |
+3.3 |
| Toll Road |
+0.6 |
+3.6 |
+9.5 |
| HK Consumer Group |
+0.5 |
-2.3 |
-0.7 |
| HK Telecoms |
+0.4 |
+1.9 |
-1.6 |
| Environmental & New Energy |
+0.4 |
-0.4 |
+16.0 |
| Steel |
+0.4 |
-3.3 |
+5.2 |
| Chinese Insurers |
+0.3 |
+1.2 |
+11.6 |
| Technology |
+0.2 |
-2.6 |
+10.3 |
Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors
- Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
- Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Gala Sec. (6881)
- Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
- Department Store: NWDS China (825), Springland (1700), Intime (1833), Golden Eagle (3308), Parkson Group (3368)
- Sports Accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xstep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
- Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
- Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
- Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
- Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), An Expressway (995)
- HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
- HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
- Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
- Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
- Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
- Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices
| Index |
FY15E P/E |
Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E |
Deviation from Avg. (%) |
FY1 EPS Growth (%) |
FY2 EPS Growth (%) |
| Hang Seng Index |
11.6 |
11.3 |
+2.8 |
-14.6 |
+6.8 |
| HSCEI |
7.9 |
8.5 |
-6.6 |
-4.5 |
+5.4 |
| Shanghai Comp |
14.5 |
11.0 |
+31.3 |
+18.6 |
+11.3 |
| S&P 500 |
17.5 |
14.7 |
+19.1 |
+4.8 |
+9.5 |
Market Data
Best and Worst Performers
| Stock |
Code |
Price (HK$) |
1D Change (%) |
5D Change (%) |
1M Change (%) |
YTD Change (%) |
Turnover (HK$m) |
FY1 P/E |
FY2 P/E |
| NetDragon Web |
777.HK |
22.300 |
+7.7 |
+5.4 |
+12.4 |
+63.3 |
84.7 |
166.2 |
57.3 |
| Weichi Power-H |
2338.HK |
9.130 |
+6.3 |
+4.3 |
+16.2 |
-44.2 |
46.7 |
13.2 |
11.1 |
| CGS-H |
6881.HK |
7.100 |
+5.5 |
+1.3 |
+28.4 |
-27.0 |
557.3 |
6.5 |
8.3 |
| Haitian Intl |
1882.HK |
13.780 |
+5.2 |
+5.7 |
+5.0 |
-15.8 |
22.6 |
13.4 |
12.4 |
| Shandong Wei-H |
1066.HK |
5.500 |
+4.8 |
+2.0 |
+6.0 |
-12.1 |
50.1 |
17.0 |
14.6 |
| Stock |
Code |
Price (HK$) |
1D Change (%) |
5D Change (%) |
1M Change (%) |
YTD Change (%) |
Turnover (HK$m) |
FY1 P/E |
FY2 P/E |
| China Public Pro |
1094.HK |
0.149 |
-8.6 |
+3.5 |
+23.1 |
-12.9 |
7.5 |
N/A |
N/A |
| Orient Overseas |
316.HK |
37.000 |
-6.1 |
-3.9 |
-2.4 |
-18.4 |
61.1 |
8.8 |
7.1 |
| SFCE |
1165.HK |
2.610 |
-5.8 |
-15.5 |
+27.9 |
-52.5 |
104.5 |
5.3 |
6.7 |
| Huadian Power-H |
1071.HK |
6.310 |
-5.5 |
-0.8 |
+1.6 |
-7.2 |
138.0 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
| Huaneng Power-H |
902.HK |
8.870 |
-5.5 |
-3.5 |
+3.9 |
-15.4 |
382.3 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
HSCI Volume Filter
| Company |
Code |
Price (HK$) |
1D Change (%) |
Avg. Vol. (m shares) |
Prev. Vol. (m shares) |
% Increase |
FY1 P/E |
FY2 P/E |
| Polytec Asset HO |
208.HK |
0.950 |
-3.1 |
0.6 |
2.8 |
+355.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
| Welling Holding |
382.HK |
1.310 |
-3.7 |
0.9 |
4.2 |
+341.6 |
N/A |
N/A |
| Xinchen China PO |
1148.HK |
1.920 |
-1.0 |
1.1 |
4.9 |
+338.9 |
6.6 |
5.7 |
| Road King Infra |
1098.HK |
6.800 |
+0.3 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
+180.6 |
N/A |
N/A |
| NetDragon Web |
777.HK |
22.300 |
+7.7 |
1.5 |
3.9 |
+160.8 |
166.2 |
57.3 |
| Sa Sa Int'l Hldgs |
178.HK |
2.590 |
+2.8 |
4.8 |
12.5 |
+115.0 |
11.9 |
11.6 |
| Huaneng Power-H |
902.HK |
8.870 |
-5.5 |
16.7 |
42.4 |
+154.5 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
| Orient Overseas |
316.HK |
37.000 |
-6.1 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
+150.7 |
8.8 |
7.1 |
Most Short Sold Stocks
| Company |
Code |
Price (HK$) |
1D Change (%) |
Shortsell Turnover (HK$m) |
% of Total Shortsell Turnover |
% of Own Turnover |
FY1 P/E |
FY2 P/E |
| YueXiu Transport |
1052.HK |
5.340 |
-3.1 |
3.9 |
0.1 |
57.3 |
10.4 |
10.2 |
| Shenzhen Intl GP |
2313.HK |
38.300 |
-3.7 |
28.7 |
0.5 |
53.3 |
18.8 |
16.1 |
| Universal Health |
2211.HK |
3.210 |
-1.2 |
18.7 |
0.3 |
51.7 |
9.8 |
8.8 |
| TCL Multimedia T |
1070.HK |
3.350 |
-1.5 |
3.3 |
0.1 |
46.9 |
N/A |
11.6 |
| Longfor PPT |
960.HK |
10.700 |
+2.1 |
18.3 |
0.3 |
43.4 |
6.8 |
6.4 |
Interest Rates
| Instrument |
Latest (%) |
5D Change (bps) |
1M Change (bps) |
YTD Change (bps) |
y-y % Change |
| U.S. 2-year Treasury |
0.6372 |
+0.82 |
-5.46 |
-2.73 |
+25.56 |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury |
2.0547 |
-1.23 |
-10.76 |
-11.65 |
-20.58 |
| U.S. 30-year Treasury |
2.8639 |
-5.27 |
-9.17 |
+11.21 |
-17.29 |
| HK 1-month HIBOR |
0.2244 |
-1.53 |
-2.00 |
-1.08 |
-0.34 |
| HK 3-month HIBOR |
0.3849 |
-1.57 |
-1.61 |
+0.34 |
+0.92 |
| SH 1-month HIBOR |
2.8880 |
-14.60 |
-19.90 |
-270.00 |
-95.80 |
| SH 3-month HIBOR |
3.0840 |
-8.50 |
-6.90 |
-205.11 |
-138.45 |
Exchange Rates
| Currency Pair |
Latest |
5D % Change |
1M % Change |
YTD % Change |
y-y % Change |
| USD Dollar Index |
96.7870 |
+2.0 |
+0.5 |
+7.2 |
+13.2 |
| USD/HKD |
7.7499 |
+0.0 |
+0.0 |
+0.1 |
+0.1 |
| EUR/USD |
1.1051 |
-2.6 |
-1.7 |
-8.7 |
-13.0 |
| USD/JPY |
120.87 |
-0.9 |
-0.8 |
-1.0 |
-10.8 |
| GBP/USD |
1.5350 |
-0.6 |
+1.2 |
-1.5 |
-4.8 |
| USD/CHF |
0.9829 |
-2.7 |
-0.9 |
+1.2 |
-3.4 |
| AUD/USD |
0.7246 |
-0.2 |
+3.7 |
-11.3 |
-17.7 |
| NZD/USD |
0.6782 |
+0.4 |
+7.2 |
-13.1 |
-14.1 |
| USD/CAD |
1.3165 |
-1.4 |
+1.8 |
-11.7 |
-14.6 |
| USD/CNY |
6.3516 |
-0.1 |
+0.2 |
-2.3 |
-3.7 |
| USD/CNH |
6.3881 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-2.6 |
-4.2 |
Precious Metals and Commodities
| Commodity |
Latest |
5D % Change |
1M % Change |
YTD % Change |
y-y % Change |
| CRB Index |
192.3 |
-2.3 |
-1.8 |
-16.4 |
-28.9 |
| Comex Gold |
1,163.1 |
-1.2 |
+1.5 |
-1.8 |
-5.4 |
| Comex Silver |
15.850 |
-0.4 |
+4.9 |
+1.8 |
-7.6 |
| Nymex WTI Crude |
43.81 |
-3.8 |
-4.1 |
-17.8 |
-45.9 |
| ICE Brent Crude |
47.43 |
-2.6 |
-2.4 |
-17.3 |
-44.7 |
| LME Copper |
5,191.00 |
-0.3 |
+3.3 |
-17.6 |
-22.4 |
| LME Aluminum |
1,479.00 |
-4.5 |
-5.6 |
-20.2 |
-24.8 |
| CBT Wheat |
510.25 |
+3.9 |
+0.5 |
-13.5 |
-2.4 |
| CBT Corn |
384.25 |
+2.0 |
-1.2 |
-3.2 |
+5.9 |
| CBT Soybean |
885.25 |
-1.2 |
-0.4 |
-13.1 |
-12.0 |
A-share Premium to H-share
| Company |
H share code |
Price (HK$) |
A share code |
Price (RMB) |
A-share Premium to H-share (%) |
| LUOYANG GLASS-H |
1108 |
5.93 |
600876 |
40.40 |
+731.3 |
| ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H |
1057 |
8.28 |
002703 |
40.30 |
+493.9 |
| SINOPEC OILFIE-H |
1033 |
2.58 |
600871 |
9.68 |
+357.8 |
| BYD CO LTD-H |
1211 |
48.45 |
002594 |
68.96 |
+73.7 |
| China Vanke-H |
2202 |
18.56 |
000002 |
13.67 |
-10.1 |
| China Reinsurance-H |
1508 |
2.7 |
601508 |
8.68 |
+76.5 |
| CITIC Bank-H |
998 |
5.12 |
601998 |
6.45 |
+53.7 |
| Ping An-H |
2318 |
43.95 |
601318 |
33.57 |
-6.8 |
| China Eastern Airlines-H |
670 |
4.95 |
600115 |
8.11 |
+99.9 |
Top 20 Most Traded ETFs
| ETF Code |
ETF Name |
Price (HK$) |
1D Change (%) |
5D Change (%) |
| 2822 |
CSOP FTSE CH-HKD |
12.46 |
-0.95 |
-0.16 |
| 2800 |
TRACKER FUND HK |
23.90 |
-0.42 |
+0.21 |
| 2823 |
ISHARES FTSE A50 |
11.12 |
-0.54 |
+0.36 |
| 2828 |
HS H-SHARE ETF-H |
109.60 |
+0.09 |
+0.83 |
| 3188 |
CHINAAMC 300-HKD |
43.40 |
-0.69 |
-1.25 |
| 83188 |
CHINAAMC 300-CNY |
35.70 |
-0.97 |
-0.70 |
| 2827 |
CSI 300 China |
32.45 |
+0.62 |
-0.15 |
| 2824 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2825 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2826 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2829 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2830 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2831 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2832 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2833 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2834 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2835 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2836 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2837 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
| 2838 |
CSI 300 China A |
22.20 |
-0.67 |
-1.31 |
