20180514-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook__Firming_of_2018_19_Soybean_Prices_Hinges_on_Demand_Prospects_22页_219kb

Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and global oil crops for the 2018/19 marketing year, focusing on soybeans, canola, sunflowerseed, and other oilseeds. It also covers the implications for supply, demand, prices, and trade dynamics.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Planting intentions for soybeans in 2018/19 are 89 million acres, a 1% decrease from the previous year.
• Production is projected at 4.28 billion bushels, slightly lower than the prior two crops.
• Beginning stocks are expected to be much larger, potentially raising total supply to an all-time high of 4.84 billion bushels.
• Exports could reach a record 2.29 billion bushels due to abundant supply and global demand.
• Domestic crush is forecast to increase marginally to 1.995 billion bushels, with a modest rise in domestic disappearance of soybean meal to 35.2 million short tons.
• Prices for soybeans are projected to range between $8.75 and $11.25 per bushel, higher than the current forecast of $9.35.
• Soybean meal prices are expected to stay elevated between $330 and $370 per short ton.

U.S. Canola Outlook

• Planting intentions for canola in 2018/19 are nearly identical to last year at 2.08 million acres.
• Production is forecast to rise by 6% to 3.3 billion pounds due to improved yields.
• Domestic crush is expected to increase to 4.4 billion pounds, reversing the 11% decline from 2017/18.
• Exports are anticipated to remain stable at 11.5 million tons.

U.S. Sunflowerseed Outlook

• Oil-type sunflowerseed production is forecast to decline slightly by less than 1% to 1.85 billion pounds.
• Domestic crush is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.05 billion pounds.
• Prices for sunflowerseed are projected to stay close to 17.5 cents per pound.

Global Soybean Outlook

• Global production is expected to increase by 5% to 354.5 million metric tons, with Argentina, Uruguay, and India leading the recovery.
• Global exports are projected to rise by 7% to 161.8 million tons.
• Global use is expected to grow by nearly 3%, tightening stocks to 86.7 million tons.
• Argentina is anticipated to recover from a drought-affected crop, with harvested area expected to rise by 10% to 18.7 million hectares, potentially increasing production to 56 million tons.
• Brazil may expand its soybean area by 4% to 36.5 million hectares, and its exports are expected to slightly decrease to 72.3 million tons.
• China is forecast to increase soybean imports by 6% to 103 million tons, representing 87% of the global increase.
• U.S. soybean meal exports are projected to drop slightly to 12.4 million short tons.

Global Rapeseed Outlook

• Global production is expected to rise by 1.5% to 75.4 million tons.
• EU production may increase by 1% to 22.4 million tons, with a slight decline in area due to weather and market conditions.
• EU rapeseed imports are forecast to decrease by 4% to 4.2 million tons.
• EU rapeseed oil use is expected to rise by 2% to 25.5 million tons, but industrial use may decline slightly by 1% to 7 million tons.
• China is projected to increase rapeseed imports by 15% to 5.3 million tons, as domestic production stagnates.

Global Sunflowerseed Outlook

• Global production is expected to reach a new peak at 49.8 million tons, driven by increases in Ukraine, Russia, and Argentina.
• Ukraine may maintain its crop area at 6.4 million hectares but increase production by 11% to 15.5 million tons.
• Russia is forecast to expand its sunflowerseed area by 5% to 7.5 million hectares, leading to an 11% rise in production to 11.5 million tons.
• EU sunflowerseed area is expected to decline slightly, with production dropping by 5% to 9.1 million tons and crush by 4% to 8.2 million tons.
• Argentina may see improved growing conditions, but production gains are expected to be minimal due to competition from other crops.

Global Cottonseed and Peanut Outlook

• Global cottonseed production is projected to decline by 1% to 44.3 million tons, with China, the U.S., and Australia leading the decrease.
• India maintains its production at 12.1 million tons, but a 4% loss of area to soybeans and rice may slightly reduce output.
• Global peanut production is expected to fall by 2% to 44.6 million tons, with declines in India and the U.S. partially offset by increases in China and Argentina.

Global Vegetable Oil Outlook

• Global palm oil production is expected to rise by 2% to 21 million tons, with Indonesia projected to increase output by 5% to 40.5 million tons.
• Palm oil exports from Indonesia are forecast to rise by 4% to 29.2 million tons, while Malaysia may see a modest increase in exports to 17.5 million tons.
• India is raising import tariffs on crude palm oil to support domestic producers, and is expected to increase palm oil imports by 8% to 11.5 million tons.
• China is projected to reduce palm oil imports slightly to 4.95 million tons, as domestic soybean oil production grows.
• EU vegetable oil use is expected to grow modestly, with rapeseed and soybean oil consumption rising by 1%, and palm oil demand weakening by 2%.
• EU biodiesel is the largest biofuel industry, and the EU may consider reducing the use of food-crop oils in biofuels.

Key Information

• U.S. soybean exports could hit a record 2.29 billion bushels due to high supply and global demand.
• Argentina is expected to rebound from a drought-affected crop, with a 10% increase in harvested area.
• Global vegetable oil supplies are expected to increase, with palm oil and sunflowerseed oil leading the growth.
• RIN values have declined, affecting the competitiveness of U.S. biodiesel.
• EU biodiesel is under scrutiny, with potential policy changes to reduce reliance on food-crop oils.
• U.S. domestic crush for soybeans is forecast to increase only marginally, due to a decline in soybean meal exports.

Conclusion

The 2018/19 outlook for oil crops highlights a mix of supply growth, demand shifts, and price volatility across the U.S. and global markets. While U.S. soybean production is expected to decrease slightly, the high beginning stocks may support record exports. Global production is on the rise, with significant contributions from Argentina, Brazil, India, and Russia. However, global supplies and competition from other oils are expected to temper price increases. The report underscores the importance of trade dynamics, government policies, and weather conditions in shaping future market outcomes.