20210514-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook_2021.05.14_13页_1mb

报告摘要

Wheat Outlook Summary: May 2021

Core Content Overview

The Wheat Outlook: May 2021 report from the USDA's Economic Research Service provides an analysis of the U.S. and global wheat markets for the 2021/22 marketing year. It outlines production, use, trade, and price trends, emphasizing the impact of supply and demand dynamics, weather conditions, and global economic factors.

Main Points

U.S. Wheat Outlook

Production Increase: U.S. wheat production for the 2021/22 marketing year is forecast at 1,875 million bushels, a 3% increase from 2020/21.
Winter Wheat Production: Winter wheat production is expected to rise by 10% to 1,283 million bushels, driven by higher yields in key states like Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas.
Supply and Demand: The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 37%, a 11% decrease from the prior year, due to reduced carryin stocks and increased use.
Domestic Use: Feed and residual use is expected to rise by 70 million bushels, contributing to a 6% increase in domestic use.
Farm Price Forecast: The U.S. wheat season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected to reach $6.50 per bushel, the highest in 8 years, driven by tighter supplies and rising corn prices.

Global Wheat Outlook

Production Increase: Global wheat production is forecast to rise by 12.9 million metric tons (MT) to a record 789 million MT, led by the European Union, Argentina, Ukraine, and the United States.
Consumption Growth: Global wheat consumption is projected to reach a record 788.7 million MT, with food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use accounting for nearly 80% of total consumption.
Trade Growth: Global wheat trade for the 2021/22 marketing year is expected to increase by 6.1 million MT to 203.2 million MT, with Russia projected as the largest exporter and Egypt as the largest importer.
Stocks: Global ending stocks are forecast to rise slightly to 295 million MT, but remain below the 2019/20 record. China continues to hold the largest share of global stocks at 48%, while U.S. stocks are expected to drop to 21.1 million MT, the lowest in 7 years.

Key Trends and Factors

Supply Constraints in the U.S.

Tighter Supplies: Reduced carryin stocks and slightly lower production lead to a tighter supply in the U.S.
Feed and Residual Use: Increased feed use, especially due to a weaker wheat-to-corn price ratio, is expected to boost the residual use component of domestic consumption.
Domestic Demand: Despite a slight decline in food use due to reduced consumption in the third quarter, total use is forecast to increase by 6.5 million bushels.

Global Production and Consumption

Major Producers: The EU, Argentina, Ukraine, and the U.S. are the main drivers of increased global production.
China's Role: China's wheat consumption is projected to rise by 1.75 million MT to 136 million MT, driven by increased food and industrial use.
Durum Flour Demand: Durum food use remains record high at 91 million bushels, primarily due to pasta consumption and import increases.

Trade Dynamics

Export Competition: U.S. wheat faces strong competition from other exporting countries, and higher prices are expected to reduce export competitiveness.
Import Trends: Algeria, Turkey, and Indonesia show significant import growth, while Pakistan and Morocco experience declines due to larger domestic supplies and tariff changes.

Supporting Data and Figures

Figure 1: Highlights the rise in U.S. wheat prices due to tighter stocks and higher corn prices.
Figure 2: Shows the increased share of winter wheat in U.S. production for 2021/22.
Figure 3: Illustrates the impact of the wheat-to-corn price ratio on feed and residual use.
Figure 4: Depicts the decline in U.S. wheat food use and the record-high durum food use.
Figure 5: Reflects the historic low in the Chinese wheat-corn price spread.
Figure 6 and 7: Provide distribution of global ending stocks and trends in exporter stocks.

Statistical Updates

U.S. Data Adjustments: Updates to the 2020/21 data include revisions to production, consumption, and trade figures, primarily due to changes in reporting and market dynamics.
Bulgur Inclusion: Starting with the 2015/16 data, bulgur (HS code 190430) is now included in global wheat trade statistics, with Turkey as the dominant supplier.
Brexit Impact: The United Kingdom is now treated as a separate entity in USDA trade statistics, with trade with the EU now considered external trade.

Conclusion

The 2021/22 wheat outlook highlights tighter supplies in the U.S. and record global production and consumption. Despite the increased global supply, U.S. wheat prices are expected to rise to an 8-year high due to lower stocks and stronger corn prices. The global trade and stock levels are influenced by weather, market demand, and economic conditions, with China and the EU playing significant roles in shaping the outlook.