20210614-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_2020_21_Brazilian_Soy__Higher_Production_and_Stocks_9页_272kb

报告摘要

Oil Crops Outlook Summary - June 2021

Core Content Overview

The Oil Crops Outlook: June 2021 report from the USDA Economic Research Service provides a detailed analysis of global and domestic oil crop production, demand, and price forecasts for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 marketing years. The report highlights the impact of various factors including weather conditions, labor shortages, and market demand on the production and trade of oil crops such as soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil.

Main Points and Key Information

Brazilian Soybean Outlook

Production Forecast: USDA increased Brazil's soybean production forecast by 1 million metric tons to a record 137 million metric tons for the 2020/21 marketing year.
Yield Increase: The increase is attributed to higher yields in Mato Grosso do Sul, the fifth largest soybean producing state.
Ending Stocks: With exports and crush unchanged, ending stocks for 2020/21 are raised to 23 million metric tons.
2021/22 Stocks: The increased production and lower crush in the current year have led to a 15 million bushel increase in stocks, projecting ending stocks for 21/22 at 155 million bushels.

Domestic Soybean Outlook

Soybean Crush: The soybean crush pace has slowed, with daily crush rates dropping to 5.7 million bushels per day in April.
Crush Estimate: USDA revised the crush estimate down by 15 million bushels to 2,175 million bushels.
Soybean Meal: Domestic soybean meal disappearance decreased by 150,000 tons to 37.95 million tons due to stagnant feed demand.
Soybean Oil Production: Soybean oil production was also reduced by 135 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds.
Soybean Oil Prices: Season-average prices for soybean oil increased by $0.04 to $0.59 per pound due to strong domestic demand.
Exports: The anticipated increase in prices has led to a dramatic decline in soybean oil exports, with April exports at 130 million pounds, the lowest since January 2020.
Overall Stocks: Despite the drop in crush, soybean stocks increased by 15 million bushels to 135 million bushels for the current marketing year.

Global Rapeseed Outlook

Production Increase: Global rapeseed production is expected to rise in the 2021/22 marketing year due to favorable production conditions and strong global demand.
EU Production: EU rapeseed production is increased by 600,000 metric tons to 17.2 million metric tons.
Ukraine and Australia: Increased rainfall in Ukraine and high prices in Australia have led to higher yields and planted area, with production forecasted at 3.7 million metric tons.
Chinese Demand: China continues to be a major importer of rapeseed oil, with 2020/21 imports increased by 250,000 metric tons to 2.35 million metric tons.
UAE Role: The UAE is expected to import 100,000 additional metric tons of rapeseed, contributing to higher exports of rapeseed meal and oil to China.
Global Demand and Stocks: Global rapeseed demand for 2020/21 and 2021/22 is forecasted at 73.3 and 73.9 million metric tons, respectively. Ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 5.72 million metric tons, a slight increase from 5.66 million metric tons.

Malaysian Palm Oil Outlook

Production and Exports: Malaysia faces labor shortages due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, and higher rainfall has impacted production. As a result, 2020/21 production is reduced by 500,000 metric tons to 18.5 million metric tons.
Exports Decline: Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to decline by 480,000 metric tons to 16.4 million metric tons.
Indonesian Response: Indonesia is anticipated to increase its exports by 480,000 metric tons to 28.5 million metric tons to offset the decline in Malaysian exports.
Global Stocks: World palm oil ending stocks are expected to finish the year at 11.8 million metric tons.

Soybean Cost of Production

Estimates Updated: USDA updated soybean cost and return estimates for 2019 and 2020 using the 2018 survey data.
Returns: National returns for soybeans in 2020 were $515.40 per acre, with the Heartland region (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, etc.) having the highest returns at $560.50 per acre.
Lowest Returns: The Northern Great Plains had the lowest returns at $355.78 per acre due to lower yields.
Operating Costs: Total operating costs per acre in 2020 were $185.12, with seed being the largest component at $59.51 per acre.
Allocated Overhead Costs: Total allocated overhead costs were $315.26 per acre, with opportunity cost of land and capital recovery being the main contributors.
Cost Trends: Nominal costs have increased over time, with operating costs rising by $12.83 and overhead costs by $49.96 from 2012 to 2020.
Yield Growth: Soybean yields have increased from 42 bushels per acre in 2012 to 53 bushels per acre in 2020.

Conclusion

The report underscores the volatility and complexity of oil crop markets, driven by production conditions, demand trends, and price fluctuations. While Brazil and global rapeseed production are projected to increase, Malaysia faces challenges due to labor shortages and weather. The U.S. soybean market is also experiencing changes in crush and export volumes, influenced by domestic demand and global trade dynamics. The cost and return analysis highlights the regional disparities in production costs and profitability, offering insights for policy makers and researchers.