世界银行-全球灾后快速损失评估（GRADE）报告_缅甸地震-2025年3月28日（英）_44页_6mb

Myanmar Earthquake - March 28, 2025: GRADE Report Summary

Disclaimer

This report is produced by the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included. All rights reserved. This work may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes with full attribution.

Core Content

The Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report provides a rapid estimate of the direct economic damage to buildings and infrastructure caused by the March 28, 2025, magnitude 7.7 earthquake in central Myanmar. It is intended to support response planning, recovery strategies, and risk reduction interventions.

Key Findings

• The earthquake caused significant destruction across central Myanmar, impacting over 17 million people.
• As of April 14, 2025, the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance (AHA) reported 3,655 fatalities, with these numbers expected to increase.
• The GRADE methodology uses a combination of earthquake damage modeling, catastrophe risk modeling, and capital stock assessments to estimate economic damage.
• The total direct economic damage is estimated at US$10.97 billion, equivalent to about 14% of Myanmar's GDP for the financial year 2024/25. However, due to uncertainty, the damage range is between US$6.24 billion and US$15.82 billion.
• Residential buildings accounted for the highest damage, totaling US$4.97 billion (45% of total damage).
• Non-residential buildings suffered US$2.63 billion in damage (24% of total).
• Infrastructure damage totaled US$3.36 billion (31% of total).
• The most severely impacted regions were Mandalay, Sagaing, and Bago, accounting for 82% of total damage (US$5.27 billion, US$2.26 billion, and US$1.27 billion, respectively).
• Nay Pyi Taw Union Territory and Magway Region also experienced substantial damage.
• The earthquake caused extensive damage to infrastructure systems, including roads, bridges, and dams, disrupting essential services like water, sanitation, electricity, and telecoms.
• It also heavily impacted Myanmar's cultural heritage, damaging many historical and religious sites.
• Household consumption losses in the most impacted areas could reach up to 25%, with socioeconomically vulnerable households expected to be more adversely affected.
• Recovery and reconstruction costs are anticipated to significantly exceed direct damage estimates, considering humanitarian needs, conflict dynamics, gender considerations, and socioeconomic disruptions.

Key Statistics

Methodology and Data Sources

• The GRADE methodology is a remote, rapid damage estimation approach.
• It draws on seismic data, satellite imagery, building exposure models, and humanitarian reports.
• The availability of quality data has been limited, and the analysis was completed as of April 18, 2025.

Historical Context

• The Sagaing Fault, a transform fault between the Sunda and Burma tectonic plates, has a long history of seismic activity.
• The March 28, 2025 earthquake is one of the most impactful in Myanmar's history, likely the deadliest.
• It triggered a rupture of approximately 460 km, extending from Singu (Mandalay Region) to Pyu (Bago Region).
• The earthquake had a shallow depth of 10 km, and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) was IX to X in Mandalay and Sagaing.
• Aftershocks were recorded, including a notable Mw 6.7 event shortly after the mainshock, near Mandalay International Airport.

Key Contributions

• The report was prepared by a team led by Rashmin Gunasekera from the World Bank's IDURM and GFDRR.
• Peer reviewers included Ronette Jordan and Philipp Petermann.
• The analysis incorporated data from the Myanmar Information Management Unit, GFDRR, and global earthquake models.
• The report also acknowledges the nexus between disaster risk management and fragility, conflict, and violence (DRM-FCV), as well as gender considerations in the impact analysis.

Sectoral Damage Overview

Main Impacts

• The earthquake caused widespread damage to buildings, infrastructure, and essential services.
• Essential services such as water, sanitation, electricity, and telecoms were severely disrupted.
• Cultural heritage was also impacted, with historical and religious sites damaged.
• Socioeconomic vulnerability was a key factor, with low-income households and those without access to improved sanitation or water being most affected.
• The country's political instability and ongoing conflict likely weakened its disaster preparedness and response capacity.

Conclusion

• The GRADE report provides a crucial baseline for recovery planning and risk reduction in Myanmar.
• It highlights the need for targeted recovery strategies that account for humanitarian needs, conflict dynamics, and gender considerations.
• The impact of the earthquake is expected to extend beyond immediate economic losses, with long-term social and economic implications.

References

• World Bank and GFDRR
• ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance (AHA)
• United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA)
• United Nations Women
• Myanmar Information Management Unit
• Global Earthquake Model
• Pacific Disaster Center
• United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)