2023-01-14-Kantar-中国快速消费品_仍不稳定_但有希望的迹象（英）_32页_1mb

China FMCG: Still Volatile—but with Signs of Hope

Executive Summary

China's FMCG market displayed resilience despite 2022's challenges, with a 3.6% year-over-year growth (led by volume increase) due to stockpiling and health concerns.
Key trends:

• High-speed growth in food and beverage driven by polarization, promotions, and behavioral shifts.
• Price deflation (absolute decline for most categories, except premium ones) amid supply chain costs.
• O2O and e-commerce e-commerce gains continue, but slowed growth; convenience stores and grocery offline formats thrive.
• The long-term outlook is cautiously optimistic, with signs of avoiding stagnation and increased domestic sophistication.

FMCG Trends: Resilience Despite Odds

• Overall FMCG Growth: 3.6% YoY, with volume (5.9%) driving growth amid average selling price declines.
• Pandemic Impact: Lockdowns fueled stockpiling (food staples, hygiene products) but dampened discretionary spending (cosmetics, foreign liquor).
• City Tiers: Tier-1 cities saw more premiumization; lower tiers adopted value-seeking behaviors (larger packs, promotions).

Category Insights

Food & Beverage:

• Driven by juice (22% YoY growth), with polarization and functional products.
• Instant noodles (5% ASP up, 13% volume up) and beer/ice cream boosted by Q3 heat wave and “small treats” mentality.
• Overall market blend of recovery, structural shifts, and event-driven demand.

Home Care & Personal Care:

• Home Care: Grew 6% YoY via volume, with toilet tissue (11% YoY growth) and fabric detergent benefiting from increased household focus and innovation.
• Personal Care: Suffered 1.9% YoY value drop, led by makeup (16% YoY) and fragrances due to reduced social activity. Growth driven by promotions and domestic substitution.

Growth Trajectories & Deflation

• Deflationary Trend: Overall ASP down 2.1%, reflecting sustained commoditization vs. some premium/functional items.
• Four-Factor Trajectory Shifts: For example, V-shaped rebound (e.g., shampoo, detergent) vs. L-shaped declines (yogurt, foreign spirits).

Channel Shifts

• O2O rose to 46% market share (especially community/group buying), enabling essential goods stockpiling amid logistics issues.
• E-commerce slowed but remains critical for certain categories (juice, beer), while traditional offline channels filled gaps.

Future Outlook for Brands & Retailers

• For Brands:
  Prioritize consumer-centricity, test-and-learn efficiency, and scenario planning.
  Adaptability, diversification, and leveraging promotions will be crucial.
• For Retailers:
  Focus on loyalty, exclusive assortments, O2O integration—not solely focusing on GMV.

Final Insights

The report suggests signs of hope for FMCG players, including enduring resilience in key categories, urbanization trends, and controlled inflation. nimble, consumer-centric companies can navigate volatility toward healthy growth.