2025-05-15-Jefferies-联合公用事业公司（UU）_初步观点财年最新情况-_2025_26财年指引高于市场普遍预期10_7页_106kb

报告摘要

Current Rating: Hold
Price Target: 1,110p (+4% from previous closing price of 1,070.50p)
Consensus vs. Actual Performance (FY24/25):
- Revenue: £2.1bn (+10% yoy), inline with consensus.
- Underlying EBIT: £634m (+0.8% vs Jefferies forecast, +0.5% vs consensus).
- Underlying EPS: 49.6p (+49% yoy, +0.6% vs consensus).
- Capital Expenditure (Capex): £1.08bn (+47% yoy), within the guidance range of £0.95-£1.1bn.
- Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): Referenced in valuation, but not detailed here.

Revenue Projection: Expected to increase to between £2.5-£2.6bn, aligning with inflation adjustments.
Profit After Tax (PBT) Projection: Approximately £650m, indicating a ~+10% year-on-year improvement relative to Visible Alpha consensus, contingent on lower operating costs (not explicitly detailed) and in-line interest and depreciation expenses.
Key Drivers and Assumptions:
- Operating costs expected to decrease, offsetting some inflation and growth-related expenses.
- Depreciation: Approximately £50m higher yoy.
- Net interest expense: Linked to inflation (each 1% increase in inflation raises interest by ~£47m due to ~£4.7bn in index-linked debt).
- Full-year tax: Expected to be nil for FY25/26.
- Capex: Over £1.5bn, exceeding the prior-year level.

Business: United Utilities manages regulated electricity distribution, water, and wastewater networks in North West England.
Strategic Goals: Aims to outperform its regulatory contract by at least 100bps.
Valuation and Risks: The price target is SOTP-derived, with risks including regulatory performance, rising bond yields, and sector M&A activity. Gearing at 60% is within consensus, and financial metrics project robust growth.

Maintains "Hold" rating with an upside potential for FY25/26 based on positive momentum.
Recommendation is based on strong operational performance and forward guidance alignment.

展开完整摘要