2025-05-15-Jefferies-国家电网（NG）_2025_26财年展望超出市场预期约5_7页_234kb

National Grid PLC: Equity Research Summary

Key Performance Overview

• FY25 Results: Reported underlying operating profit of £5.4bn (+12% YoY), exceeding consensus by 1%. Full-year earnings per share (EPS) stood at 73.3p, a 1% increase from consensus.
• Financial Position: Net debt reached £41.4bn, an increase of £2.9bn or 5% YoY, with a current dividend per share (DPS) aligned with Consumer Price Index for Household (CPIH) growth.
• EPS Guidance for FY26: Expected EPS of 77.7p, approximately 5% ahead of consensus, driven by strong operational performance in key divisions.

Future Outlook and Guidance

• FY25/26 Expectations: National Grid anticipates EPS growth in the range of 6-8%, likely ending on the lower end due to foreign exchange headwinds. This implies an EPS of 77.7p for the period. Asset growth is forecast at 11%, normalized for business disposals, with investments exceeding £11bn.
• Divisional Performance: Electricity transmission EBIT increased 11% YoY to £1.5bn, while electricity distribution EBIT hit £1.2bn (+4% YoY but 1% below consensus). US regulated EBIT rose significantly (+31% YoY to £2.4bn vs. consensus), supporting overall growth.
• Risks and Challenges: An impairment of £300m on the US offshore wind joint venture reflects industry slowdown, a minor drag on performance.

Company and Strategy

• Business Description: National Grid owns UK electricity and gas networks and operates a US transmission business, contributing 30% of group EBIT. Operations under frameworks like RIIO in the UK and individual reviews in the US.
• Valuation: Rating is BUY with a price target of 1,140p. Risks include rising bond yields, regulatory uncertainties, political changes in the UK, and US rate case filings.

Analyst Insights and Actions

• The report highlights a positive outlook, skewed by New York business performance, but tempering from the impairment.
• An investor deep-dive event is scheduled for today, providing further details on major projects.

Key Metrics and Comparison

• Current Trading: Price at 1,015.50p, with a 5% upside potential from the price target.
• Historical Context: Rating and price target history shows upward trends from HOLD to BUY since 2024, reflecting evolving market confidence.

Important Notes

This summary is based on the equity research report dated May 15, 2025, derived from National Grid's financial data and Jefferies analysts' perspectives. Investors should consider broader risks and conduct independent due diligence before decisions.