2025-05-19-Jefferies-瑞安航空（RYA）_2025财年业绩夏季定价强劲_业绩符合预期_更多股票回购_7页_106kb

Ryanair maintains a Hold rating with a EUR €21.00 price target (representing a 6% downside from current €22.41). Despite a 5% EBIT miss for FY2025, net profit was in line, driven by robust summer pricing. Forward outlook for Summer 2025 is strong, with first-quarter fares expected to grow mid-high teens on easy comps, supported by Easter benefits, and second-quarter growth, though unquantified. Commentary on timely Boeing deliveries is positive. Buybacks of €750m over the next 6-12 months are anticipated to keep EPS consensus stable, with potential upside if yields remain strong. FY2025 key numbers include revenues of €13,948.5m, average fares down 7%, and net profit €1,611.6m. Traffic guidance for FY2026 remains unchanged, with unit costs experiencing modest inflation due to route and environmental taxes. Valuation metrics suggest a 6.4x EV/EBITDA multiple for FY2026, alongside a 11.6x trailing PE. Primary risks involve carbon cost headwinds, reliance on Boeing aircraft deliveries, lack of defined cost reduction programs, and significant exposure to yield volatility.