2025-05-20-Jefferies-Forterra（FORT）_初步观点2025年4个月最新情况-非常令人安心_7页_106kb

Forterra Equity Research Summary

Key Conclusions

• The First View recommends a "Buy" rating with a 12-month price target of 206.00p, up from the current 189.00p.
• Trading results show a strong start to the year, with pricing adjustments offsetting cost inflation, and unchanged guidance contributing to reassurances.
• Management's decision to utilize both kilns at the Desford plant from 4Q25 signals confidence in supply demand and market recovery.
• The balance sheet is solid (debt-to-asset ratio or coverage not specified, but mentioned as in good shape), supporting potential reinstatement of a high dividend payout this year.

Financial Highlights

• 4Q25 sales increased by 22% YoY, driven by strong performance across divisions, with core bricks volume matching market growth.
• Current price is 189.00p, market cap is approximately £431.1M ($572.1M).
• Analysts note tougher comparables in the coming quarters but suggest possible upgrades if trends persist.

Operational Updates

• Production ramp-up at Desford is accelerated to 4Q25, with simultaneous use of both kilns, enhancing supply assurance.
• The market tone is positive, with bricky inventories falling, indicating increased tension and recovery.

Investment Outlook

• Jefferies analysts provide a "Buy" recommendation based on robust cash generation and strong market positioning.
• Risks include UK growth rates, cost inflation variability, and project timelines at Desford.
• The 12-month price target reflects an 8% FCF yield on 2026E projections.