2021-12-30-益普索Ipsos-Global-Predictions-for-2022_37页_476kb

Global Predictions for 2022 Summary

Core Content

This document presents a set of global predictions for 2022, based on survey data collected from 22,023 adults across various countries. The survey covers topics related to health, environment, economy, society, and technology, with each question asking respondents to assess the likelihood of specific events occurring.

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1. COVID-19 Predictions

Main Question:

• More than 80% of the world’s population will receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine

• Global Country Average: 45% likely, 42% unlikely

• Country-wise Insights:

  • China: 68% likely, 23% unlikely
  • Singapore: 67% likely, 28% unlikely
  • Malaysia: 66% likely, 25% unlikely
  • Netherlands: 57% likely, 31% unlikely
  • Belgium: 53% likely, 34% unlikely
  • United States: 49% likely, 34% unlikely
  • Japan: 33% likely, 58% unlikely

Key View:

There is a moderate likelihood that more than 80% of the world's population will receive at least one dose of the vaccine in 2022, with varying opinions across countries.

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2. Environmental Predictions

Main Questions:

• More extreme weather events in my country in 2022 than in 2021
• People will fly less than they did in 2019

Extreme Weather Events:

• Global Country Average: 71% likely, 20% unlikely
• Country-wise Insights:
  • China: 87% likely, 9% unlikely
  • Malaysia: 86% likely, 10% unlikely
  • India: 52% likely, 38% unlikely
  • United States: 64% likely, 27% unlikely
  • Japan: 15% likely, 58% unlikely

Air Travel Reduction:

• Global Country Average: 57% likely, 31% unlikely
• Country-wise Insights:
  • China: 68% likely, 25% unlikely
  • Singapore: 65% likely, 28% unlikely
  • South Korea: 53% likely, 34% unlikely
  • Netherlands: 53% likely, 39% unlikely
  • Japan: 36% likely, 58% unlikely

Key View:

There is a strong likelihood of increased extreme weather events and reduced air travel compared to 2019, especially in countries like China and Singapore, where people are more likely to expect these changes.

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3. Economic Predictions

Main Questions:

• Prices in my country will increase faster than people's incomes
• Major stock markets around the world will crash

Inflation vs. Income:

• Global Country Average: 75% likely, 18% unlikely
• Country-wise Insights:
  • Russia: 88% likely, 8% unlikely
  • Chile: 85% likely, 11% unlikely
  • United States: 78% likely, 13% unlikely
  • Germany: 81% likely, 14% unlikely
  • Japan: 33% likely, 58% unlikely

Stock Market Crash:

• Global Country Average: 35% likely, 42% unlikely
• Country-wise Insights:
  • China: 46% likely, 33% unlikely
  • Japan: 31% likely, 58% unlikely
  • United States: 49% likely, 34% unlikely
  • Netherlands: 44% likely, 39% unlikely

Key View:

A majority of respondents expect prices to rise faster than incomes, with some countries like Russia and Chile showing higher likelihood of this trend. The likelihood of a global stock market crash is relatively low, though still perceived as a possible risk in some regions.

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4. Societal Predictions

Main Questions:

• City centers in my country will become busy again as people get back to working in offices on a regular basis
• People in my country will become more tolerant of each other

Return to Office:

• Global Country Average: 71% likely, 20% unlikely
• Country-wise Insights:
  • China: 87% likely, 9% unlikely
  • Malaysia: 86% likely, 10% unlikely
  • United States: 64% likely, 27% unlikely
  • Japan: 15% likely, 58% unlikely

Social Tolerance:

• Global Country Average: 28% likely, 61% unlikely
• Country-wise Insights:
  • China: 83% likely, 13% unlikely
  • Japan: 18% likely, 58% unlikely
  • United States: 21% likely, 67% unlikely
  • France: 9% likely, 81% unlikely

Key View:

There is a high likelihood that city centers will return to normal levels of activity as people resume office work. However, increased social tolerance is less likely, with countries like France and the United States showing a significant percentage of respondents expecting it to be unlikely.

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5. Technology Predictions

Main Questions:

• Many more people will live their lives in virtual worlds
• Strict rules for large technology companies will be introduced by the Government in my country

Virtual Worlds:

• Global Country Average: 57% likely, 29% unlikely
• Country-wise Insights:
  • China: 33% likely, 56% unlikely
  • Japan: 18% likely, 58% unlikely
  • United States: 49% likely, 34% unlikely
  • Netherlands: 44% likely, 39% unlikely

Regulation of Tech Companies:

• Global Country Average: 38% likely, 42% unlikely
• Country-wise Insights:
  • China: 33% likely, 56% unlikely
  • Japan: 18% likely, 58% unlikely
  • United States: 49% likely, 34% unlikely
  • Netherlands: 44% likely, 39% unlikely

Key View:

A significant portion of respondents believe that more people will live in virtual worlds, especially in countries like China and Malaysia. However, the introduction of strict regulations for technology companies is also seen as a likely event, with some countries showing a higher likelihood than others.

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6. Global Threats Predictions

Main Questions:

• A natural disaster will hit a major city in my country
• Hackers from a foreign government will cause a global IT shutdown
• Nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict somewhere in the world
• A rogue artificial intelligence program that can't be shut down will cause significant havoc globally
• An asteroid will hit the Earth
• Aliens will visit Earth

Likelihoods:

• Natural Disaster: 39% likely, 40% unlikely
• Foreign Government Hackers: 38% likely, 40% unlikely
• Nuclear Weapons Use: 34% likely, 46% unlikely
• Rogue AI Program: 27% likely, 50% unlikely
• Asteroid Impact: 16% likely, 59% unlikely
• Alien Visit: 14% likely, 67% unlikely

Key View:

Respondents perceive a moderate risk of natural disasters and cyber threats, but the likelihood of nuclear weapons use or asteroid impacts is low. The idea of alien visits is considered very unlikely by most.

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Conclusion

The survey highlights a mix of expectations and concerns across different domains:

• Health: Moderate confidence in vaccine distribution.
• Environment: High likelihood of extreme weather and reduced air travel.
• Economy: Expectation of rising prices over income, with less concern about stock market crashes.
• Society: Likely return to office work, but low likelihood of increased social tolerance.
• Technology: Strong belief in the expansion of virtual living and regulation of tech companies.
• Global Threats: Concern about natural disasters and cyber threats, but low belief in catastrophic events like nuclear war or asteroid impacts.

These predictions reflect a cautious optimism in some areas and significant uncertainty in others, based on public perception in 2021.