20181205-凯基证券亚洲-Market_Overview_4页_249kb

Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, focusing on key indices, technical indicators, market activity, and economic events. It also includes insights on specific sectors, notably the aviation industry, and highlights the impact of global and regional factors on market performance.

Key Market Indicators

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• Closing Price (4 Dec): 27,260 (+78 points)
• Market Turnover (4 Dec): HK$92.7 billion
• Stock Advances (4 Dec): 874
• Stock Declines (4 Dec): 785
• HSI Turnover (4 Dec): HK$37.47 billion
• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-day MA: 26,471
  • 50-day MA: 26,136
  • 250-day MA: 29,072
  • 14-day RSI: 64.7
  • Primary Resistance: 27,500
  • Primary Support: 26,989

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

• Closing Price (4 Dec): 10,907 (+25 points)
• HSCEI Turnover (4 Dec): HK$30.52 billion
• Stock Advances (4 Dec): 1,203
• Stock Declines (4 Dec): 591
• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-day MA: 10,599
  • 50-day MA: 10,491
  • 250-day MA: 11,515
  • 14-day RSI: 64.6
  • Primary Resistance: 11,000
  • Primary Support: 10,622

Market Outlook

• The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade between 26,600-27,000 today.
• The US and China's ceasefire for 90 days boosted Hong Kong equities on Monday.
• The HSI closed with a white candlestick pattern, indicating a positive trend.
• The MACD histogram remains in positive territory, supporting the bullish outlook.
• Despite a sharp drop in the US stock market, the stabilized RMB exchange rate and lowered US Treasury Yield may help offset some downward pressure on Hong Kong stocks.

China Aviation Sector

• The share price of major Chinese airlines rebounded 30-40% from its bottom this year.
• The strengthening RMB and falling oil prices have been key drivers of this recovery.
• However, with the RMB expected to be capped at 6.80 and oil prices likely to bottom at $50 per barrel, further support for the sector may be limited.
• The current prospective P/B for the three major airlines is 0.95-1.15x, which is within the 0.8-1.4x historical range, indicating fair valuation.
• Profit-taking pressure is expected in the short term.
• Air China is highlighted as a top pick due to its strong cost control and higher profitability, with a prospective P/B of 1x offering strong support.

Stock Market Activity

SH-HK Connect Southbound

• Balance (RMB bn): SH Connect: 48.54, SZ Connect: 50.90, Combined: 84.31
• Balance as % of Quota: SH Connect: 93.4%, SZ Connect: 97.9%, Combined: 100.4%

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

• ICBC (1398): Buy: HKD 149,210,350, Sell: HKD 111,445,160, Turnover: HKD 260,655,510
• TENCENT (700): Buy: HKD 112,616,960, Sell: HKD 136,186,520, Turnover: HKD 248,803,480
• CHINA OVERSEAS (688): Buy: HKD 813,700, Sell: HKD 110,919,553, Turnover: HKD 111,733,253
• CSPC PHARMA (1093): Buy: HKD 95,208,920, Sell: HKD 15,682,440, Turnover: HKD 110,891,360
• PING AN (2318): Buy: HKD 45,779,475, Sell: HKD 57,573,675, Turnover: HKD 103,353,150
• SUNAC (1918): Buy: HKD 48,301,950, Sell: HKD 51,311,250, Turnover: HKD 99,613,200
• GAC GROUP (2238): Buy: HKD 57,863,740, Sell: HKD 39,424,805, Turnover: HKD 97,288,545
• CM BANK (3968): Buy: HKD 29,572,350, Sell: HKD 47,104,525, Turnover: HKD 76,676,875
• FOSUN PHARMA (2196): Buy: HKD 49,919,650, Sell: HKD 21,354,775, Turnover: HKD 71,274,425
• SMIC (981): Buy: HKD 43,333,555, Sell: HKD 23,401,392, Turnover: HKD 66,734,947

SZ-HK Connect Southbound

• TENCENT (700): Buy: HKD 40,109,420, Sell: HKD 193,261,220, Turnover: HKD 233,370,640
• SINO BIOPHARM (1177): Buy: HKD 24,974,940, Sell: HKD 98,224,950, Turnover: HKD 123,199,890
• CM BANK (3968): Buy: HKD 74,957,250, Sell: HKD 28,884,250, Turnover: HKD 103,841,500
• KINGDEE INT'L (268): Buy: HKD 15,609,560, Sell: HKD 73,599,860, Turnover: HKD 89,209,420
• CHINA RES LAND (1109): Buy: HKD 59,500, Sell: HKD 82,606,800, Turnover: HKD 82,666,300
• CSPC PHARMA (1093): Buy: HKD 12,887,680, Sell: HKD 63,888,080, Turnover: HKD 76,775,760
• LONGFOR GROUP (960): Buy: HKD 159,375, Sell: HKD 63,316,450, Turnover: HKD 63,475,825
• SUNAC (1918): Buy: HKD 26,396,600, Sell: HKD 36,971,150, Turnover: HKD 63,367,750
• CONCH CEMENT (914): Buy: HKD 184,350, Sell: HKD 61,680,650, Turnover: HKD 61,865,000
• CHINA SHENHUA (1088): Buy: HKD 56,331,310, Sell: HKD 1,537,160, Turnover: HKD 57,868,470

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks

• TENCENT (700): Change: +1.11%, Closed Price: HKD 328.40, Turnover: 8,184.7 million
• PING AN (2318): Change: +0.39%, Closed Price: HKD 77.85, Turnover: 2,543.0 million
• CCB (939): Change: -0.29%, Closed Price: HKD 6.80, Turnover: 2,249.9 million
• CHINA MOBILE (941): Change: +0.53%, Closed Price: HKD 75.75, Turnover: 1,693.3 million
• AIA (1299): Change: +1.13%, Closed Price: HKD 67.00, Turnover: 1,682.7 million
• HKEX (388): Change: +2.04%, Closed Price: HKD 239.80, Turnover: 1,547.9 million
• ICBC (1398): Change: +0.88%, Closed Price: HKD 5.76, Turnover: 1,407.7 million
• BANK OF CHINA (3988): Change: -0.29%, Closed Price: HKD 3.49, Turnover: 1,189.8 million
• CNOOC (883): Change: +1.02%, Closed Price: HKD 13.84, Turnover: 1,022.8 million
• CM BANK (3968): Change: +0.74%, Closed Price: HKD 34.20, Turnover: 925.5 million

Ten Short Sell Stocks

• TENCENT (00700.HK): Short Sell: HKD 1.45B, Turnover: HKD 8.18B, Short Sell Ratio: 17.69%
• CCB (00939.HK): Short Sell: HKD 920.68M, Turnover: HKD 2.25B, Short Sell Ratio: 40.92%
• TRACKER FUND (02800.HK): Short Sell: HKD 869.37M, Turnover: HKD 1.03B, Short Sell Ratio: 84.21%
• PING AN (02318.HK): Short Sell: HKD 785.10M, Turnover: HKD 2.54B, Short Sell Ratio: 30.87%
• ICBC (01398.HK): Short Sell: HKD 409.10M, Turnover: HKD 1.41B, Short Sell Ratio: 29.06%
• BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK): Short Sell: HKD 372.91M, Turnover: HKD 1.19B, Short Sell Ratio: 31.34%
• ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short Sell: HKD 351.85M, Turnover: HKD 574.15M, Short Sell Ratio: 61.28%
• GALAXY ENT (00027.HK): Short Sell: HKD 344.41M, Turnover: HKD 824.79M, Short Sell Ratio: 41.76%
• CNOOC (00883.HK): Short Sell: HKD 293.75M, Turnover: HKD 1.02B, Short Sell Ratio: 28.72%
• SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK): Short Sell: HKD 268.10M, Turnover: HKD 882.80M, Short Sell Ratio: 30.37%

Economic Calendars

• Mon, 4 Dec: US Nov. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Prior: 55.4), Euro Zone Nov. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Prior: 51.5)
• Tue, 4 Dec: Euro Zone Oct. CPI YoY (Prior: 4.5%)
• Wed, 4 Dec: US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
• Thur, 4 Dec: US Oct. Trade Balance (Prior: -$54.0B)
• Fri, 4 Dec: US Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Prior: 205K), US Nov. Unemployment Rate (Prior: 3.7%), US Dec. University of Michigan Market Sentiment (Prior: 97.5)
• Sat, 4 Dec: China Nov. PPI YoY (Prior: 3.3%), China Nov. CPI YoY (Prior: 2.5%)

Disclaimer

• The information and opinions are from internal research at KGI Asia Ltd.
• KGI Asia Ltd. does not guarantee the fairness, accuracy, or completeness of the information.
• The report is for informational purposes only and may not be reproduced or published without written consent.
• KGI Asia Ltd. and its affiliates may provide services to companies mentioned in the report.