2023-12-31-世界银行-毛里求斯公共支出审查-从韧性到绩效_现代化财政政策以促进疫情后毛里求斯的增长_129页_2mb

Mauritius Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This report, From Resilience to Performance: Modernizing Fiscal Policies to Boost Mauritius's Growth Post-pandemic, provides an analysis of Mauritius's fiscal and public finance management (PFM) frameworks, and outlines policy recommendations to enhance macroeconomic stability, boost economic growth, and improve equity and efficiency in education and private-sector development.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Context and Fiscal Policy Adjustments

• Economic Overview: Mauritius has experienced rapid development since independence, transforming from a low-income country to an upper-middle-income country and an international financial center.
• Post-pandemic Opportunity: The government has the chance to revise fiscal policies to strengthen macroeconomic stability and resilience.
• Fiscal Challenges: Expansionary spending to support demand-led growth has undermined macroeconomic stability. The pandemic exacerbated fiscal imbalances, with a surge in social support and a decline in productivity growth.
• Debt Concerns: Mauritius's sovereign risk rating has been downgraded, and its debt stock is high, though the composition is favorable. The country needs to avoid further downgrades to maintain fiscal credibility.
• Fiscal Space: Reduced fiscal space due to the pandemic and the indirect impact of Russia's war in Ukraine requires careful fiscal management to ensure sustainability.

2. Fiscal Policy Reforms

• Revenue Mobilization: Revenue has increased since 2014 but remains below comparator groups. Indirect taxes dominate the tax system, and tax expenditures need consolidation to improve transparency and equity.
• Spending Efficiency: Public spending is below structural peers but consistently higher than revenues, leading to persistent deficits and rising debt. Improving allocative and technical efficiency in spending is critical to maximize the impact of the limited fiscal envelope.
• Contingent Liabilities: Both explicit and implicit contingent liabilities are significant and require close monitoring to manage fiscal risk. Social protection spending, particularly basic retirement pensions, is a major contributor to these liabilities.
• PFM Framework: Mauritius's PFM system is among the strongest in Africa, but it needs further reforms to meet international standards. Budgetary rigidity and uneven execution across spending categories are major constraints.
• Fiscal Discipline: Formal budget processes and adherence to fiscal rules are essential for reestablishing credible fiscal discipline.

3. Education Sector Analysis

• Education System: The system is well-structured, with a significant role played by the private sector. However, there are challenges in secondary and tertiary education, including low learning outcomes and high inequality.
• Public Spending on Education: Public education spending is at expected levels, but efficiency is low. Learning outcomes are high compared to the region but fall short of national aspirations.
• Inequality: Education outcomes are highly unequal across socio-economic groups and regions.
• Policy Options: Improving resource allocation, reducing dropout rates, and aligning with international best practices are key to enhancing the returns of public education investment.

4. Private Sector Development

• Impact of Pandemic: The pandemic affected private sector development programs, necessitating new support mechanisms to sustain firm growth and survival.
• State Support Programs: These programs need to be aligned with international best practices to support high-value-added sectors. There is a need for better targeting and more effective implementation instruments.
• Innovation and R&D: Mauritius lags behind peer countries in innovation and R&D investment, which is crucial for transitioning to a knowledge-based economy.

Key Messages and Policy Options

• Fiscal Reforms: Enhancing revenue mobilization, streamlining tax expenditures, and improving the efficiency of public spending are essential for fiscal sustainability.
• Education Efficiency: Reducing allocative inefficiencies, improving learning outcomes, and addressing inequality are key to enhancing the impact of public education investment.
• Private Sector Support: Optimizing support programs to align with international standards and fostering innovation will be critical for economic growth.
• Green and Resilient Growth: Leveraging Mauritius's low-carbon growth potential and transitioning toward a green and resilient economy are important long-term goals.
• PFM Improvements: Strengthening the PFM framework through more flexible budgeting, improved execution, and adherence to fiscal rules will enhance public financial management performance.

Conclusion

Mauritius has the potential to restore its high-income status and transition to a knowledge-based economy by modernizing its fiscal and PFM frameworks. The report emphasizes the need for structural reforms to address fiscal imbalances, improve public spending efficiency, and enhance resilience against future shocks, including climate change. These reforms are essential to ensure sustainable growth and equitable development.