20141218-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_18页_889kb

报告摘要

EcoWorld Development (ECW MK/BUY/RM3.91/Target: RM5.59)
- The company is poised to become one of the largest property developers in Malaysia.
- Initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation due to its strong team and growth potential.

Geely Auto (175 HK/SELL/HK$2.59/Target: HK$2.20)
- 2014 net profit is expected to drop 50% yoy to Rmb1.33b, much lower than previous estimates and consensus.
- The decline is attributed to:
  - A 26% yoy drop in sales volume.
  - Unrealised foreign exchange losses due to the Russian ruble's depreciation.
  - Squeezed margins from reduced capacity utilisation and price cuts.
- Maintain SELL recommendation and cut target price from HK$2.97 to HK$2.20.
- The company is expected to face EBIT margin pressures, with revised forecasts from 11.5% to 9.4% for 2014-16.

Red Planet Indonesia (PSKT IJ/NOT RATED)
- The company is focusing on budget hotel growth in Indonesia.
- It operates under the Tune Hotel brand with a 66.7% occupancy rate.
- Plans to revoke the alliance with Tune Hotels to improve margins by 8%.
- A rights issue is in the pipeline to fund expansion plans.

City Developments (CIT SP/HOLD/S$9.70/Target: S$10.84)
- Monetising the Sentosa portfolio at attractive valuations.
- Maintain HOLD recommendation.

Hemaraj Land and Development (HEMRAJ TB/HOLD/Bt4.22/Target: Bt4.55)
- A tender offer for shares is likely to start in March 2015.
- Maintain HOLD due to an expected special dividend from asset divestment.

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17356.9	1.7	-1.0	-1.6	4.7
S&P 500	2012.9	2.0	-0.7	-1.4	8.9
FTSE 100	6336.5	0.1	-2.5	-5.0	-6.1
AS30	5140.6	0.2	-1.8	-4.5	-4.0
CSI 300	3360.6	1.7	4.3	32.2	44.2
FSSTI	3227.2	0.4	-3.0	-2.6	1.9
HSCEI	11269.4	1.2	-0.9	8.1	4.2
HSI	22585.8	-0.4	-4.0	-4.0	-3.1
JCI	5035.6	0.2	-2.5	-1.3	17.8
KLCI	1681.9	0.5	-4.7	-7.5	-9.9
KOSPI	1900.2	-0.2	-2.3	-3.4	-5.5
Nikkei 225	16819.7	0.4	-3.4	-3.0	3.2
SET	1480.2	1.3	-5.1	-6.4	-14.0
TWSE	8828.4	-1.4	-2.3	0.3	2.5
BDI	827	-1.3	-9.2	-34.6	-63.7
CPO (RM/mt)	2121	-1.7	-1.0	-3.5	-17.6
Nymex Crude	56	0.0	-8.2	-26.1	-43.2

Sunac China (1918 HK): Target price HK$9.29, current price HK$6.61, potential upside 40.5%
ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$6.15, current price HK$5.31, potential upside 15.8%
Bank Mandiri (BMRI J): Target price JPY12,500, current price JPY10,600, potential upside 17.9%
Gamuda (GAM MK): Target price RM5.50, current price RM4.81, potential upside 14.3%
DBS (DBS SP): Target price S$22.68, current price S$19.08, potential upside 18.9%
Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): Target price RM1.57, current price RM0.79, potential upside 100.0%
Bangkok Bank (BBL TB): Target price THB276.00, current price THB192.50, potential upside 43.4%
Advanced Info (ADVANC): Target price THB270.00, current price THB242.00, potential upside 11.6%

UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price HK$10.00, current price HK$10.40, potential downside 3.8%

Metric	2013	2014F	2015F
GDP (% yoy)	7.7	7.2	7.0
Brent (US$/bbl)	110	100	85
CPO (US$/mt)	736	725	765
BDI	1,219	1,200	1,300

Event	Venue	Begin	Close
Regional Oil & Gas Conference	Kuala Lumpur	13 Jan	13 Jan

2014 net profit expected to drop 50% yoy to Rmb1.33b.
New models like the New Emgrand and GX9 have not significantly boosted sales.
Sales rebounded from 20,100 units in July 2014 to 44,000 units in October-November 2014.
New GC9 model is expected to contribute to future sales growth.
Margin pressures are expected to continue due to:
- Reduced capacity utilisation.
- Price cuts.
- Lower margins from new models.
Net margin is expected to fall to 5-6% in 2H14 from 10.9% in 1H14 and 9.3% in 2013.
EBIT margin revised down to 9.4%, 9%, and 9% for 2014-16, down from 11.5%, 11%, and 11%.

Cut target price from HK$2.97 to HK$2.20.
Based on revised core EPS estimates, the stock trades at 10x 2014F PE and 9.4x 2015F PE.
Target 2015F PE multiple cut to 8x, below historical mean.
Earnings downgrade is expected after the release of 2014 results due to margin issues.

Budget hotel growth is the main focus.
Occupancy rate of 66.7% in seven major cities.
IT system supports efficient online booking and price generation.
Plans to revoke the alliance with Tune Hotels to improve 8% margin.
A rights issue is in the pipeline to fund 20 new hotels over the next five years.
2015 target: Launch three new hotels in Cikini, Tendean, and Karawang.
Expected revenue of Rp80b in 2015, up 85% yoy.
EBITDA target of Rp40b, up 145% yoy.

9M14: Net loss of Rp68.1b.
2015 revenue target: Rp80b, up 85% yoy.
EBITDA target: Rp40b, up 145% yoy.
Occupancy rate increased after the implementation of a new reservations system.