转型中的碳市场_通往2030年之路研究报告_42页_4mb

Summary of CARBON MARKETS IN TRANSITION: THE PATH TO 2030

Core Content

This report, "CARBON MARKETS IN TRANSITION: THE PATH TO 2030," is a GHG Market Sentiment Survey conducted by the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) in association with PwC. It provides an overview of the current state and future outlook of carbon markets, focusing on key topics such as Emissions Trading Systems (ETS), the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), CORSIA, Article 6, the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM), and carbon price projections up to 2030.

Main Points

1. Emissions Trading Systems (ETS)

• Overall Sentiment: Cautious optimism is present, with respondents generally supporting the expansion and linkage of national ETS.
• Confidence in Integration: Confidence in the timelines and integration of ETS systems has weakened since 2023.
• Expectations for Future: Most respondents expect a linkage between the EU and UK ETS by 2030, and anticipate the inclusion of carbon removals in the EU ETS in the next decade.
• Sectoral Expansion: The UK, EU, China, and South Korea are expanding their ETS coverage to include more sectors, such as maritime transport, buildings, and parts of the transport sector.
• Challenges: Uncertainty remains around the integration of ETS2 with ETS1 and the future use of Article 6 credits.

2. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

• Optimism: There is optimism that the EU CBAM will protect EU companies from carbon leakage.
• Implementation Concerns: Despite a clear legal framework, stakeholders doubt the timely commencement of CBAM certificate sales.
• Compliance Issues: Low compliance rates were observed during the first reporting period, with many companies struggling to meet reporting requirements.
• Russia's Dispute: Russia has initiated a WTO dispute against the EU CBAM, which may impact its timeline and effectiveness.
• Hedging Instruments: Uncertainty exists around the design and future role of hedging instruments in managing CBAM price volatility.

3. CORSIA

• Muted Confidence: Respondents express cautious optimism regarding CORSIA's ability to achieve compliance, with many anticipating undersupply of credits.
• Policy Fragmentation: Concerns persist over fragmented policy alignment between the EU and ICAO, and weak enforcement capacity.
• Recent Reforms: Transparency and reduced offset demand have been improved, but market confidence remains low.

4. Article 6

• Growing Confidence: Confidence in Article 6 has increased significantly, with 91% of respondents viewing it as a key driver of future climate action.
• Challenges: Concerns remain around complex methodologies, limited host-country capacity, and weak market demand.
• Registry and Verifiers: The absence of a fully functioning registry and limited number of accredited verifiers are slowing the pipeline and delaying market confidence in Article 6.4 activities.

5. Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM)

• Transformation Phase: The VCM is undergoing a transformation, with integrity, transparency, and trust emerging as core priorities.
• Market Growth: Despite uncertainty and declining transaction volumes, respondents are cautiously optimistic about the future of the VCM, especially with alignment with Article 6 and national ETS.
• High-Integrity Credits: There is an expectation that high-quality removal credits will command higher prices by 2030.

6. Carbon Price Projections

• Long-Term Growth: Respondents remain confident that carbon prices will increase in the long term, though expectations have moderated.
• Short-Term Declines: Near-term declines in prices are anticipated, particularly in compliance and some voluntary markets.
• Premium Prices: High-quality credits are expected to see continued price premiums, with the VCM and Article 6 driving this trend.
• Paris Agreement Goals: IETA members do not expect carbon prices in any national ETS to be sufficient to meet the $1.5^\circ C$ to $2^\circ C$ goals of the Paris Agreement by 2030.

Key Information

• Survey Participants: 143 IETA member representatives, with 28% being obligated entities under a carbon pricing mechanism and 63% having been active in carbon markets for over 10 years.
• Geopolitical Impact: Political tensions and uncertainty are affecting carbon pricing sentiment, particularly with the Trump administration's tariff agenda and ongoing global conflicts.
• Market Convergence: There is a positive trend toward market convergence around high-integrity credits, which is expected to enhance credibility and resilience.
• Regional Examples:
  • California: Extended its Cap-and-Invest system to 2045, introducing measures to protect consumer affordability.
  • Indonesia: Launched a national mandatory ETS in 2023, currently limited to the power sector, with plans to expand to other sectors.

Conclusion

While carbon markets are showing signs of growth and maturation, challenges such as uncertainty in integration timelines, policy design, and compliance remain. The report highlights the importance of stronger governance, transparency, and alignment with international standards to build trust and ensure the long-term success of these markets. The increased confidence in Article 6 and the expectation of rising carbon prices signal a positive trajectory, though the path to achieving the Paris Agreement goals remains uncertain without stronger policy signals and market reforms.