深度-新加坡国际事务研究所-2021年雾霾展望（英文）-2021.6-24页_3mb

HAZE OUTLOOK 2021 Summary

Core Content

The HAZE OUTLOOK 2021 report, published by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), provides a risk assessment of the likelihood of a severe transboundary haze incident in 2021, affecting Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It evaluates the interplay between weather conditions, peatland management, and human behavior to determine the risk level and identify potential opportunities for climate action and green recovery.

Main Points

Risk Assessment

• The 2021 Haze Outlook is rated Green, indicating a low risk of a severe transboundary haze incident.
• This is the first time the rating has been Green, reflecting a positive trend in haze prevention.
• The rating is based on three key factors:
  • Weather: The 2021 dry season is expected to be normal or average, not unusually dry, which reduces the likelihood of severe haze.
  • Peatland Management: Indonesia has taken steps to improve peatland restoration, including the extension of the Peatland and Mangrove Restoration Agency (BRGM) mandate to 2024.
  • Human Behavior: While some industrial and smallholder activities may still involve fire, the overall trend suggests a reduction in fire activity due to the impact of the pandemic and the focus on sustainability.

Positive Developments in 2020

• No transboundary haze incident occurred in 2020, despite initial fears.
• Wet weather due to La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) helped control fires.
• Satellite data shows a significant drop in fire hotspots compared to 2019.
• Deforestation rates fell to a record low, with about 115,459 hectares deforested in 2020, down from 1.6 million hectares in 2019.
• Indonesia dropped to fourth in global primary forest loss for the first time since 2000.

Concerns and Future Outlook

• Despite the positive outlook, uncertainties remain regarding future policies and their environmental impact.
• The Omnibus Law (Job Creation Act), passed in October 2020, may loosen environmental protections, raising concerns about long-term haze risk.
• Economic recovery and agricultural expansion could potentially increase land clearing, but this is not yet evident in 2021.
• The private sector remains an important player in fire management and monitoring, with many firms continuing to invest in these efforts despite the challenges posed by the pandemic.

Key Opportunities for Climate Action

Nature-Based Solutions (NBS)

• NBS are increasingly seen as a key strategy for emissions reduction and climate action.
• Indonesia has the potential to become a carbon credit superpower due to its vast forest and mangrove resources.
• Katingan Mentaya Project is an example of a successful NBS initiative, but the sector is still in early stages.
• The Indonesian government is working on carbon market regulations, but progress has been delayed due to the pandemic.

Carbon Credits and Market Development

• There is growing interest in carbon credits from nature-based projects.
• The voluntary offset market is expanding, and Singapore is positioning itself as a carbon trading hub.
• The Climate Impact X (CIX) exchange is expected to play a role in promoting carbon trading and sustainability.

Sustainable Business Practices

• The report emphasizes the importance of twinning economic recovery with environmental sustainability.
• Responsible business practices can reduce fire and haze risks while supporting local livelihoods.
• The private sector is exploring the potential of carbon credit generation from conservation areas, though most are still in the exploratory stage.

Conclusion

The HAZE OUTLOOK 2021 highlights that while the risk of severe transboundary haze is low, the region must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing the underlying causes of haze. The report calls for continued policy commitment, sustainable land management, and collaboration between governments and the private sector to ensure long-term environmental and economic benefits. It also underscores the potential of nature-based solutions and carbon markets to transform haze challenges into opportunities for climate action and green recovery.

Appendices and References

• The report includes case studies and a literature review on fires and haze.
• It references satellite data, official statistics, and expert opinions to support its analysis.
• The authors and editors are acknowledged, along with the stakeholders who contributed to the report.

Authors and Contributors

• Aaron Choo, Khor Yu Leng, Siti Bazilah, and Nadirah Sharif are the authors.
• Meixi Gan edited the report.
• The report was directed by Simon Tay, a senior consultant and academic.

Final Note

The Haze Outlook 2021 is a comprehensive analysis of the environmental, economic, and policy factors influencing transboundary haze. It serves as a guide for policymakers, businesses, and the public to make informed decisions and contribute to a sustainable future.