20160310-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_23页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Date: Thursday, 10 March 2016
Core Content Overview
This document provides an analysis of financial performance and market outlook for various companies and regions, including China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes results, key assumptions, stock impact, and investment recommendations.
China
CIFI Holdings (884 HK)
- 2015 Results: Strong performance with a 14.0% year-over-year (yoy) increase in core net profit, aligning with expectations. The company reported Rmb2,095m in attributable net profit, up 12.6% yoy.
- Dividend Yield: Attractive dividend yield of 8.0% for 2015, with a higher dividend payment leading to a 27.3% increase in DPS.
- Landbanking: Active landbanking in 2015, acquiring 25 new projects (20 JVs) in tier-1 and tier-2 cities. The company is expected to surpass its 2016 contracted sales target of Rmb36.5b.
- Financials:
- Revenue: Rmb18,231m (up 12.7% yoy)
- Core net profit: Rmb2,210m (up 14.0% yoy)
- EPS: HK$0.32 (up 3.2% yoy)
- Net gearing ratio: 70.6% (healthy level)
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$2.41, implying an upside of 39.3%.
- Key Catalysts: Better-than-expected sales, new product launches, and favorable policy changes.
Hong Kong
Cathay Pacific (293 HK)
- 2015 Results: Higher traffic and non-airline revenue led to bottom-line growth.
- Strategy: Switched to Air China.
- Valuation: Current share price HK$14.04, with a target of HK$15.00.
- Recommendation: HOLD.
Indonesia
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)
- 2015 Results: Weakness in fixed line segment led to a downgrade.
- Valuation: Current price Rp3,390, with a target of Rp3,720.
- Recommendation: HOLD.
Malaysia
Exporters
- Trading Opportunity: A window of opportunity for sold-down exporters as the ringgit is expected to weaken.
- Top Picks: JCY International, Kossan Rubber, and VS Industry.
Plantation
- 2015/16 Outlook: Positive CPO price outlook due to supply tightness and increased demand from the biodiesel mandate.
Singapore
Banking
- Market Outlook: The beginning of the return to normalcy in the banking sector.
Thailand
Property
- Earnings Outlook: Low core earnings growth in 2015 and in the years ahead.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17000.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 6.2 | -2.4 |
| S&P 500 | 1989.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 7.4 | -2.7 |
| FTSE 100 | 6146.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 9.1 | -1.5 |
| AS30 | 5215.7 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 8.1 | -2.4 |
| CSI 300 | 3071.9 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 3.6 | -17.7 |
| FSSTI | 2810.4 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 8.8 | -2.5 |
| HSCEI | 8441.5 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 4.8 | -12.6 |
| HSI | 19996.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | -8.8 |
| JCI | 4811.0 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.7 |
| KLCI | 1686.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 2.6 | -0.4 |
| KOSPI | 1953.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -0.4 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16642.2 | -0.8 | -0.6 | 5.9 | 12.6 |
| SET | 1390.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| TWSE | 8634.1 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 |
| BDI | 376 | 2.7 | 12.2 | 29.2 | -21.3 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2460 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 11.8 |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 41 | 2.9 | 10.5 | 34.6 | 9.4 |
Top Picks
| Ticker | CP (Icy) | TP (Icy) | Pot. +/- (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Capital | 7.48 | 11.40 | 52.4 |
| ICBC | 4.12 | 5.05 | 22.6 |
| Bank BJB | 935.00 | 1,140.00 | 21.9 |
| WCT Holdings | 1.60 | 2.05 | 28.1 |
| Maybank | 8.70 | 9.55 | 9.8 |
| City Developments | 7.51 | 10.86 | 44.6 |
| DBS | 15.23 | 17.48 | 14.8 |
| Charoen | 21.60 | 30.00 | 38.9 |
| Siam | 472.00 | 630.00 | 33.5 |
| SELL | |||
| Sapurakencana | 2.12 | 1.43 | -32.5 |
| Sembcorp | 1.75 | 0.88 | -49.6 |
Key Assumptions
| Country | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Malaysia | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| China | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Indicator | 2015 | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (Average) | (US$/bbl) | 53.60 | 42 |
| CPO | (RM/mt) | 2,168 | 2,500 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Economy and China Financial Sector Analyst Presentation | Kuala Lumpur | 10 Mar | 11 Mar |
| TCL Display Technology Roadshow | Hong Kong | 14 Mar | 14 Mar |
| TCL Display Technology Holdings Roadshow | Taipei | 21 Mar | 22 Mar |
| ASEAN Conference | Taiwan | 22 Mar | 23 Mar |
| Country Garden Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 24 Mar | 24 Mar |
| Wenzhou Kangning Hospital Roadshow | Shanghai | 31 Mar | 31 Mar |
Brilliance Auto (1114 HK)
- 2M16 Performance: Wholesale shipments declined by 16% yoy to 40,756 units, while retail sales increased by 9.5% yoy to 50,150 units.
- Inventory: Channel inventory dropped to 20 days, a three-year low, due to higher retail sales and lower wholesale shipments.
- Supply Issues: Dealers reported tight supply, possibly due to the trial run of the new engine plant.
- Sales Forecast: 2016 sales assumption cut by 4% to 306,000 units (up 7% yoy).
- New Models: Expected to launch in 2Q16, including the 2-series and all-new X1, which should improve competitiveness.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY, but cut target price to HK$8.50 from HK$9.00.
- Key Financials:
- Net turnover: Rmb5,218m (up 6.5% yoy)
- EBITDA: Rmb196m (up 6.5% yoy)
- EPS: 71.2 fen (up 6.5% yoy)
- PE: 8.5x
- P/B: 1.3x
- Earnings Forecast: 2016 net profit forecast cut by 5% to Rmb3,578m.
Summary of Key Points
Main Points:
- CIFI Holdings reported solid results in 2015 with a 14.0% core net profit growth and an attractive dividend yield. The company is expected to exceed its 2016 sales target due to its strong landbanking and new product launches.
- Brilliance Auto faced a decline in wholesale shipments in 2M16 but showed resilience in retail sales. The company is expected to recover in 2Q16 with new model launches.
- Regional Outlooks include positive CPO price outlook in Malaysia and Indonesia, and a return to normalcy in Singapore's banking sector.
- Market Indices show mixed performance, with some indices like the S&P 500 and DJIA showing positive growth, while others like the CSI 300 and HSI showed declines.
- Corporate Events are scheduled across various regions, including roadshows and conferences.
Key Views:
- CIFI is a strong buy with an upside of 39.3% to its new target price of HK$2.41.
- Brilliance Auto is maintained as a buy but with a reduced target price due to lower-than-expected sales.
- The market is expected to see a recovery in the second quarter for Brilliance due to new product launches.
- The overall market outlook for the region is mixed, with some positive indicators and others showing weakness.
Investment Highlights:
- Top picks in the region include CIFI Holdings, ICBC, Bank BJB, WCT Holdings, Maybank, and City Developments.
- Sell recommendations are given to Sapurakencana and Sembcorp due to negative performance indicators.
This summary highlights the performance, financials, and strategic outlook of the companies and regions discussed, providing a clear view of the current market situation and investment recommendations.
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