世界发展银行-Country-Partnership-Framework-for-Burundi-for-the-Period-FY19-FY23_101页_3mb

Summary of the Country Partnership Framework for the Republic of Burundi (FY19-FY23)

Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the Republic of Burundi, covering the fiscal years 2019 to 2023, outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) strategy to support Burundi's development in the context of its persistent poverty, fragility, and socio-economic challenges. The CPF is aligned with the WBG Strategy for Africa, focusing on sustainable and inclusive growth, human capital development, and building resilience to fragility and climate change.

Main Development Context

• Poverty and Inequality: Burundi is one of the poorest countries globally, with 72.9% of its population living below the international poverty line of $1.90 per day. Extreme poverty is concentrated in rural areas and the North and Center-East regions, with a rate triple that of Bujumbura.
• Human Capital: Burundi ranks low in human capital development, with the highest rate of chronic malnutrition (56%) and a high fertility rate (5.5 children per woman). Its Human Capital Index (HCI) was 0.38 in 2018, slightly below the SSA average of 0.40.
• Demographic Trends: The country's population is growing rapidly at 3.1% annually, with 55% of Burundians under 19. High fertility rates limit girls' education and workforce participation, contributing to low productivity and high levels of informal employment.
• Fragility: Burundi has been in a low-level equilibrium of fragility and poverty since independence in 1962. The 2015 political crisis caused significant economic contraction and social unrest, leading to a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP and a drop in foreign exchange reserves.
• Regional Integration: Burundi's position as a landlocked country makes regional cooperation critical for economic growth and poverty reduction. It is part of the East African Community (EAC) and the Great Lakes Region, with potential benefits from cross-border energy, trade, and transport projects.

CPF Focus Areas

Focus Area I: Building Human Capital and Inclusion

• Key Outcomes:
  • Enhanced coverage of safety nets to reach 1 million of the poorest population.
  • 1 million women and children under two receive basic nutrition services.
  • Over 25,000 teachers trained and 7 million textbooks developed, printed, and distributed to achieve a 1:1 pupil-textbook ratio.
  • 1 million beneficiaries of climate-smart, nutritious food production.
  • 16% increase in land productivity, targeting degraded landscapes.
  • Expanded socio-economic integration programs for refugees and host communities.
  • Enhanced access to off-grid solar energy for rural communities, including health centers, schools, and markets.

Focus Area II: Strengthening Foundations for Economic and Social Resilience

• Key Outcomes:
  • Energy generation capacity doubled from 55 to 100 MW.
  • Strengthening the banking sector and improving financial stability.
  • Supporting the development of the coffee sector through the Coffee Sector Competitiveness Project (CSCP).
  • Enhancing governance and institutional capacity through the Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (SICGEP).
  • Promoting private sector development through the Private Sector Window (PSW).

CPF Implementation and Risk Management

• Financial Envelope: The CPF includes a mix of IDA, IFC, and MIGA financing, with a focus on supporting the most vulnerable populations.
• Financial Management: The CPF emphasizes improving financial management, procurement, and other government systems to enhance efficiency and accountability.
• Program Management: Programs are designed to be well-targeted to vulnerable groups, including social safety nets and free health care for pregnant women and children under five.
• Risk Management:
  • The CPF considers three scenarios: the baseline (status quo), an upside scenario (inclusive growth), and a downside scenario (economic crisis).
  • In the downside scenario, the CPF could be adjusted to prioritize essential social services.
  • A Performance and Learning Review (PLR) will be conducted after the 2020 elections to assess changes in the country context and adjust the program accordingly.

Key Partners and Support

• WBG Engagement: The CPF is guided by lessons from the 2011 World Development Report and detailed analysis of fragility, conflict, and violence.
• Partnerships: The CPF emphasizes collaboration with civil society organizations (CSOs), non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other development partners.
• Regional Cooperation: Burundi's integration into regional initiatives such as the Ruzizi III Hydropower Project and Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project II is encouraged to enhance economic and social resilience.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Economic Recovery: While the economy is slowly recovering, growth remains fragile, with risks of macroeconomic instability, debt distress, and balance of payments crises.
• Debt Management: Domestic debt has increased significantly, with public debt reaching 50% of GDP by 2018. The country faces high interest rates and limited external borrowing options.
• Inflation and Forex: Inflation averaged 16.1% in 2017 and deflated to -2.6% in 2018. The parallel market premium increased from 25% to 52% in 2019, indicating high forex volatility.
• Banking Sector: The sector has improved in terms of capital adequacy and profitability but remains vulnerable due to high non-performing loans (NPLs) and limited credit to the private sector.

Conclusion

The CPF aims to shift the WBG's approach in Burundi toward a more citizen-centered and inclusive development model, focusing on human capital, economic resilience, and regional integration. It acknowledges the fragile political environment and the need for adaptive programming in response to potential shocks. The CPF is a strategic document that outlines the WBG's commitment to supporting Burundi's development in the context of its unique challenges and opportunities.