20210930-IEA-Ammonia_Technology_Roadmap_168页_7mb

Ammonia Technology Roadmap Summary

Core Content

Ammonia is a critical component of global agriculture, serving as the foundation for all mineral nitrogen fertilisers. It is also used in various industrial applications, such as plastics, explosives, and synthetic fibres. While ammonia could potentially act as a low-carbon energy vector in the future, this application is not the focus of the current roadmap, which instead examines its existing agricultural and industrial uses.

Ammonia production is highly energy and emissions-intensive, currently accounting for about 2% of global final energy consumption and 1.3% of CO₂ emissions from the energy system. The sector's reliance on fossil fuels is significant, with 70% of production coming from natural gas-based steam reforming and 85% of China's production relying on coal gasification. The remaining 4% of energy inputs come from oil and electricity.

The roadmap outlines three possible future scenarios for ammonia production:

• Stated Policies Scenario: The industry continues with current trends, resulting in a 40% increase in production by 2050 and a 3% rise in CO₂ emissions by 2030, followed by a decline due to improved energy efficiency and reduced coal use. Emissions in 2050 are 10% lower than today, but still insufficient for sustainability.
• Sustainable Development Scenario: The industry adopts technologies and policies aligned with the Paris Agreement, leading to a 70% reduction in direct CO₂ emissions by 2050.
• Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario: A more aggressive path, where emissions fall by 95% by 2050, aligning with global net zero goals.

Main Views

Ammonia production is expected to grow due to the increasing global population and affluence, but this growth must be accompanied by a significant reduction in emissions. The current trajectory is unsustainable, and without a shift in policy and technology, the industry's emissions will continue to rise, with cumulative direct emissions reaching 28 Gt by 2100, equivalent to 6% of the remaining emissions budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

The existing infrastructure has a long lifespan, often exceeding 50 years, which means that the current stock of plants will continue to emit for decades. This implies that reducing emissions will require new infrastructure, innovation, and investment.

Key Information

• 70% of ammonia is used for fertilisers, with the rest for industrial purposes.
• Ammonia production is responsible for 450 Mt of CO₂ emissions annually, with 170 bcm of natural gas and 75 Mtce of coal consumed in the process.
• Use-phase emissions (from fertiliser application) account for 70% of the total life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of nitrogen fertilisers.
• Non-CO₂ impacts include nitrous oxide emissions and methane emissions from fossil fuel operations.
• Near-zero-emission technologies such as electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, and CCS-enabled fossil fuel routes are emerging, but not yet widely adopted.
• The Sustainable Development Scenario requires USD 14 billion in annual investment by 2050, with 80% allocated to near-zero-emission production routes.
• The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario requires USD 15 billion in annual investment, with a more rapid deployment of technologies.
• Cumulative emission reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario are 60% from demonstration-phase technologies.
• Key milestones include the deployment of >110 GW of electrolyser capacity and 90 Mt of CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure by 2050.

Stakeholder Roles

• Governments must establish a supportive policy environment, including mandatory emission reduction policies, carbon pricing, and investment mobilisation mechanisms.
• Producers should develop transition plans, accelerate RD&D, and engage in supporting infrastructure development.
• Financial institutions and investors can guide funding towards sustainable investment schemes.
• Researchers and NGOs can help with labelling schemes, early-stage technology development, and advocacy for key technologies.

Investment and Innovation

• Existing and announced near-zero-emission projects amount to nearly 8 Mt of capacity, expected to be online by 2030.
• Technology readiness varies, with some options already in demonstration phase and others still in early development.
• Energy efficiency and material efficiency (e.g., better fertiliser use and recycling of ammonia-derived products) are essential to reduce demand growth without compromising agricultural output.

Conclusion

The roadmap concludes that a sustainable transition is possible but requires urgent action from all stakeholders. The next decade (2020–2030) is critical for laying the groundwork for long-term success, with 10% of cumulative emission reductions expected by 2030 in both the Sustainable Development Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. This includes policy development, investment in new infrastructure, RD&D acceleration, and improvements in energy and use efficiency.