【国际能源署】释放乌克兰的氢能机会：路线图-2025_87页_7mb

Unlocking Ukraine’s Hydrogen Opportunity Summary
Co-funded by the European Union and the International Energy Agency (IEA)

This report outlines Ukraine's potential to transition to low-emissions hydrogen production and its role in the European Union's (EU) green energy goals. Key findings and recommendations are as follows:

1. War Impact on Energy Sector

• Power sector: Over 80% of thermal generation capacity and two-thirds of hydropower were damaged, leading to a 1/3 power deficit.
• Hydrogen demand: Pre-war demand (~1 Mtpa) fell by ~80% due to infrastructure damage.Steel production, a potential hydrogen application, dropped by ~2/3.
• Reconstruction costs: Estimated at USD 524 billion by 2024, with 68% allocated to core energy assets. Bilateral support reached USD 430 billion.

2. Hydrogen Potential and Challenges

• Technical potential: 18–38 Mtpa renewable hydrogen (equivalent to 9–14× pre-war electricity demand).
• Infrastructure: Existing gas pipelines (33 Mtpa technical capacity) and underground storage sites (2.4 Mtpa) could support hydrogen.
• Cost barriers: Country risk premium drives WACC to ~12–15%, compared to ~1.3% in Germany, increasing hydrogen production costs by 55%.
• Water constraints: Southern regions with high renewable potential are affected by water scarcity and landmines, while Donetsk and Kakhovka face severe water supply disruptions.

3. Economic and Policy Drivers

• EU demand: Hydrogen needs in the EU could reach 15–73 Mtpa by 2050. CBAM and EU ETS will stimulate low-emission hydrogen production.
• Revenue opportunities: 2.5 Mtpa hydrogen production could generate USD 18–22 billion in annual revenue and 100,000 jobs, though 70% would be temporary.
• Fiscal challenges: Ukraine’s fiscal deficit reached 23% GDP in 2024, with public debt at ~100% GDP. Allocated capital for hydrogen is limited due to competing reconstruction priorities.

4. Three-Stage Development Roadmap

• Stage 1 (2–3 years): Focus on assessing renewable potential, improving grid and pipeline infrastructure, and establishing regulatory frameworks. Endogenous steps include:
  • Conducting techno-economic analyses for hydrogen projects.
  • Creating a single authority to oversee hydrogen regulations.
  • Using existing gas infrastructure and demining for renewable deployment.
• Stage 2 (5 years): Build experience through pilot projects, involving:
  • Coordinating public and private funding for lighthouse projects.
  • Developing export corridors and domestic hydrogen demand hubs.
  • Establishing risk management tools (e.g., insurance, guarantees) for project developers.
• Stage 3 (10–20 years): Scale up with industrial applications (e.g., steel, ammonia) and EU alignment:
  • Leveraging EU funding and technical standards.
  • Expanding storage and transport networks for long-term hydrogen exports.
  • Phasing out subsidies as market maturity progresses.

5. Financing and Risk Mitigation

• Capital needs: ~USD 85–90 billion for renewable hydrogen and electrolysis (50% of 2024 GDP).
• Risk reduction: War risk insurance and multinational guarantees are critical. The EU’s 50 billion Ukraine Facility and World Bank programs are key financing sources.
• Cost optimization: Lower WACC (targeting 5% instead of 15%) could reduce interest payments by USD 110 billion.

6. Workforce and Collaboration

• Skill gaps: Shortages in engineering and technical fields. Training programs for veterans and restructured education are recommended.
• International partnerships: Collaborate with EU countries and institutions (e.g., Germany’s “Unity Hubs”) to share expertise.
• Standardization: Align with EU technical standards and develop a unified certification system for hydrogen.

7. Policy Recommendations

• Prioritize renewable energy deployment to de-risk hydrogen projects and build supply chain confidence.
• Simplify land use regulations for hydrogen infrastructure, especially in areas with high renewable potential.
• Use blended finance and EU funding (e.g., PMI) to support early-stage projects.
• Implement carbon pricing mechanisms (e.g., CBAM) to close cost gaps.
• Accelerate grid modernization and energy market reforms to ensure competitiveness.

8. Opportunities

• Export advantages: Ukraine’s proximity to the EU enables low-cost land transport via pipelines.
• Nuclear potential: Could produce hydrogen at USD 3.6–5.3/kg, though challenges include high capital costs and construction delays.
• Blockchain and digital tools: To enhance transparency and certification for hydrogen.

The report emphasizes that hydrogen can be a cornerstone for Ukraine’s post-war recovery, offering both economic growth and decarbonization. However, it requires staged action, international collaboration, and policy alignment to overcome high capital costs and infrastructure challenges.