20251027-银河期货-燃料油日报_4页_782kb

Summary of Fuel Oil Research Report

• Date and Author: This report is dated October 27, 2025, authored by Wu Xiaorong from the Commodity Research Institute, covering fuels like FU主力 and LU主力.

• Key Data Highlights:

  • FU主力 price: 2842 on the trading date, showing an increase from previous dates (e.g., 2814 on Oct 24).
  • Trading activity: Higher FU主力 prices delta by +28, with minor changes in持仓and仓单.
  • Commodity spreads: High-sulfur month difference at -0.5 to -1.25 USD/ton, low-sulfur at -2.5 to -2.3 USD/ton.
  • Imported data includes exports (nearly 500,000 tons for high-sulfur) and制裁 updates, impacting supply chains. Low-sulfur yields increased due to refineries returning to operation.

• Market Judgement and Analysis:

  • Market overview emphasizes ongoing geopolitical risks from Ukraine conflicts and sanctions, potentially disrupting Russian energy exports despite high-sulfur export stability.
  • Supply dynamics addressed: Upcoming Nigeria capacity increase and refinery outages worldwide (e.g., Olmeca plant and Middle East fluctuations), alongside demand supports from fuel oil feedstock needs due to fourth-quarter feed quota gaps.
  • Specifically, low-sulfur fuel oil faces over-supply pressure with low spot prices, while high-sulfur demand remains steady. Sanctions are noted for EU-China trade but deemed less impactful on China's production.

• Supporting Materials: Referenced appendices include graphs showing price spreads and market viability metrics (data source: Galaxy Futures), indicating price action in the Singapore market.