20231105-国信期货-生猪周报_短期超跌反弹_后期供需仍宽松_19页_5mb

报告摘要

Summary of Guosen Futures Pig Weekly Report

Overview

The report from Guosen Futures' Research & Consulting Department focuses on the pork market, emphasizing a short-term rebound due to oversold conditions, but highlighting persistent supply-demand slack in the long term. Key insights are based on recent data and market dynamics.

Supply Analysis

High supply expected from indicators such as piglet births, increased culling of adult pigs by large farms, and high output plans for November 2023, which could lead to lower prices.
Small-scale farms add uncertainty due to disease impacts, but supply remains strong overall.

Demand Analysis

Short-term consumption weak due to lack of follow-through after price rises, but expected to improve with seasonal cooling and festival effects.
Despite marginal improvements, overall demand is insufficient to tighten the market.

Price Outlook

Short-term upside supported by retailer stocking and farmer resistance to selling, but limited upside due to sustained excess supply.
Recommendation: Maintain a观望 (wait-and-see) approach, avoiding active trading until market signals clarify.