2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Are_Middle_Eastern_Current_Account_Imbalances_Excessive__56页_1mb

Summary of "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper by Samya Beidas-Strom and Paul Cashin investigates whether current account (CA) imbalances in Middle Eastern countries are excessive by estimating medium-term CA norms using a dynamic panel regression approach. The study builds on the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate (CGER) framework and incorporates additional determinants specific to Middle Eastern economies.

Main Findings

• Current Account Norms: The study augments the fundamental determinants of the macroeconomic balance approach to better reflect Middle Eastern economic characteristics. These augmented models yield plausible CA norms for the region.
• Imbalances Assessment: Actual and projected CA imbalances for three subgroups (net oil exporters, emerging market economies (EMEs), and low-income and fragile economies (LIFEs)) are typically not excessive when compared to their medium-term norms.
• Determinants of CA Imbalances:
  • Fiscal balance: Higher fiscal balances significantly increase the CA balance.
  • Initial net foreign assets (NFA): Positive initial NFA positions are associated with higher CA balances.
  • Terms of trade (TOT): TOT shocks and volatility influence CA balances, particularly in developing countries.
  • Population structure: A larger dependent population relative to working-age population leads to larger CA deficits.
  • Oil trade balance: A positive oil trade balance is significantly linked to CA deficits.
  • Financial deepening: In developing countries, financial deepening positively affects CA balances.
  • Exchange rate regime: Financial openness and exchange rate regimes influence CA balances, with more open economies able to service external debt through foreign exchange earnings.
  • Structural factors: The study highlights the importance of structural factors such as oil wealth, maturity of oil production, and the investment climate in determining CA balances.

Key Subgroups

• Net Oil Exporters: Includes countries such as Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, UAE, and Uzbekistan. These countries are characterized by positive fiscal balances and initial NFA positions.
• Net Oil-Importing EMEs: Includes EMEs such as Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia. These are middle-income countries with significant exposure to oil prices.
• Low-Income and Fragile Economies (LIFEs): Includes countries such as Afghanistan, Armenia, Djibouti, Georgia, Mauritania, Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, Sudan, Tajikistan, and Yemen. These countries are typically PRGT-eligible and have negative fiscal balances and initial NFA positions.

Methodology and Data

• The study uses dynamic panel regression and GMM estimation to account for potential endogeneity and provide more robust results.
• It employs an unbalanced panel dataset covering 24 net oil-exporting economies, 39 net oil-importing EMEs, and 43 LIFEs.
• The CGER methodology is adapted to reflect the economic characteristics of Middle Eastern countries, with explanatory variables expressed as deviations from the weighted average of each country's trading partners.
• The estimation period is 1989–2009, chosen to minimize structural breaks and ensure a more stable dataset.

Policy Implications

• The study suggests that CA imbalances, even large ones, are not necessarily bad if they reflect underlying economic fundamentals.
• Adjustment policies should consider the specific characteristics of each subgroup, including oil dependence, fiscal position, and financial structure.
• The CA norm framework can be used to assess the extent of misalignment and guide policy decisions aimed at maintaining internal and external stability.
• The intertemporal model incorporating oil reserves provides a useful benchmark for long-term external balances in oil-exporting countries.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that the actual and projected current account imbalances of Middle Eastern countries are typically not excessive relative to their medium-term norms. The study emphasizes the importance of structural factors and the need for tailored policy responses based on subgroup-specific characteristics.