2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Current_Account_Norms_in_Natural_Resource_Rich_and_Capital_Scarce_Economies_34页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies"

Core Content

This working paper explores the current account dynamics in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies (RRDCs) during periods of resource windfalls. It develops a neoclassical small open economy model that incorporates investment inefficiencies, absorptive capacity constraints, and external borrowing constraints. The paper applies this model to the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) to provide current account benchmarks for policy analysis, particularly in the context of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The paper challenges the traditional Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH), which suggests that RRDCs should save most of their resource windfalls abroad, leading to current account surpluses. However, due to capital scarcity, development needs, and external borrowing constraints, RRDCs may instead invest domestically, resulting in current account deficits or low surpluses.

Main Points and Key Arguments

1. Resource Windfalls and Current Account Dynamics

PIH Prediction: In frictionless open economies with exhaustible resources, resource windfalls should be saved abroad, leading to current account surpluses.
Reality in RRDCs: Due to capital scarcity, external borrowing constraints, and investment inefficiencies, RRDCs may not save all windfalls abroad, and instead invest domestically.
Optimal Decisions: The model assumes that consumption and investment decisions are optimal, derived from solving the social planner's problem.

2. Investment Inefficiencies and Absorptive Capacity Constraints

Investment Inefficiencies: A dollar of public or private investment may not translate into a full dollar of productive capital due to inefficiencies in investment.
Absorptive Capacity Constraints: These are modeled as investment adjustment costs, which increase with the speed of investment.
Implications: These constraints limit the speed of investment, leading to higher current account balances or even deficits depending on the level of inefficiency.

3. External Borrowing Constraints and Risk Premiums

Country Risk Premium: The model incorporates a risk premium that depends on external debt levels.
Resource Wealth Impact: Higher resource wealth can lower the risk premium, thus relaxing borrowing constraints.
Credit Constraints: These constraints prevent RRDCs from accessing international capital markets, and resource revenues can help increase access and reduce the cost of borrowing.

4. Impact of Resource Shocks

Buffer-Stock Savings: In response to an expected decline in resource prices, households and governments may save more of the windfall to smooth consumption.
Short-Term Effects: This increases the current account balance in the short term, as precautionary savings are made before the price drop.

Model Calibration and Application

1. Model Structure

A flexible-price model is used, with investment inefficiencies, absorptive capacity constraints, and country risk premium.
The model includes two sectors: the non-oil sector and the oil sector.
Steady-State Growth: All variables grow at the rate $\mathfrak{g}$, which is the product of productivity growth ($\mathfrak{g}_a$) and population growth ($\mathfrak{g}_n$).

2. CEMAC Application

CEMAC Countries: Represent a typical case of RRDCs, characterized by credit constraints and high development needs.
Empirical Evidence: During resource booms, CEMAC countries do not show significantly lower current account balances compared to higher-income countries.
Benchmark Results: The model's current account benchmarks fall between the underlying current account deficits and the high surpluses predicted by the PIH approach.

Policy Implications

Optimal Current Account Norms: The model provides normative benchmarks for current account behavior, which can be used by the IMF to guide external sector assessments.
Parking Strategy: It supports the idea of postponing domestic spending until the economy is ready for efficient investment, as advocated by Berg et al. (2013).
Investment Efficiency: The degree of investment efficiency and absorptive capacity influence the current account balance, with lower efficiency leading to higher current account balances.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the importance of investment frictions and capital constraints in shaping current account behavior in RRDCs. It shows that resource windfalls may not necessarily lead to current account surpluses, but rather to investment and consumption decisions that reflect development needs and capital scarcity. The model is applied to CEMAC, providing policy-relevant insights that can be used in external sustainability analysis.

Key Figures and Data

Chart A: Shows current account balances and real GDP per capita for RRDCs and non-RRDCs during 1960–2011.
Chart B: Focuses on boom periods, identified using the Bry and Boschan algorithm, and shows current account balances during these periods.
Figure 1: Compares current account balances with real GDP per capita, highlighting the non-linear relationship between resource wealth and current account behavior.

References and Related Work

The paper draws on related literature, including van der Ploeg and Venables (2011a), Bems and Carvalho (2009), and Blanchard and Giavazzi (2002).
It also references the natural resource curse and Dutch disease effects, suggesting that resource wealth can relax borrowing constraints and lower the risk premium, thus improving access to capital.
The model-based approach is contrasted with empirical studies that often focus on external sustainability without considering investment dynamics.