2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Current_Account_Rebalancing_and_Real_Exchange_Rate_Adjustment_Between_the_US_and_Emerging_Asia_30页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia"

Core Content

This working paper by Isabelle Méjean, Pau Rabanal, and Damiano Sandri examines the implications of current account rebalancing between the U.S. and Emerging Asia (specifically China and Other Emerging Asia, or OEA) on real exchange rates and terms of trade. Using a three-country open economy model, the authors quantify the necessary adjustments in international relative prices to support a new equilibrium following a reduction in the U.S. current account deficit.

Main Points

1. Current Account Imbalances and Rebalancing

Large current account imbalances between the U.S. and Emerging Asia play a critical role in global economic stability.
A reduction in the U.S. current account deficit involves a shift in demand from U.S. to Emerging Asia tradable goods.
This shift requires an adjustment in the terms of trade and real exchange rates to maintain production quantities constant.

2. Model Overview

The model is based on the framework developed by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2007), extended to include three countries: the U.S., China, and OEA.
It incorporates both tradable and nontradable goods, with households maximizing utility subject to budget constraints.
The model allows for the analysis of how relative prices and exchange rates adjust in response to changes in current account balances.

3. Key Results

A 1% reduction in the U.S. current account deficit vis-à-vis Emerging Asia requires a 15% improvement in the terms of trade for Emerging Asia and a similar depreciation of the U.S. real exchange rate.
If only OEA export prices increase, China would need to appreciate more significantly to offset the demand shift.
Conversely, if China resists appreciation, the OEA would need to bear a larger adjustment burden.
Symmetric appreciation by both China and OEA leads to smaller current account surpluses for both countries compared to unilateral adjustments.

4. Substitutability and Home Bias

The high substitutability between goods from China and OEA reduces the effectiveness of unilateral adjustments in shifting U.S. demand.
Home bias (preference for domestic goods) is a key factor in determining the magnitude of price adjustments.
The model shows that with higher substitutability, the required depreciation of U.S. goods is smaller.

5. Input-Output Linkages

The paper investigates the role of input-output (IO) linkages in trade between the U.S. and Emerging Asia.
IO linkages reduce the impact of a unilateral appreciation in China on U.S. import prices, as China's appreciation does not affect the prices of intermediate inputs it imports and re-exports.
However, two-way IO linkages (where OEA also imports from China) moderate this effect, reducing the required appreciation by China.
The presence of IO linkages influences expenditure switching and real exchange rate dynamics, making the rebalancing process more complex.

6. Robustness and Limitations

The results are robust to different assumptions about elasticities of substitution and vertical fragmentation in production.
The model does not account for supply-side responses to exchange rate changes, such as labor supply or investment decisions.
It also assumes that the U.S. and Emerging Asia operate in isolation from the rest of the world, which may limit its applicability to a broader global context.

Key Information

Document Title: Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia
Authors: Isabelle Méjean, Pau Rabanal, and Damiano Sandri
Date: March 2011
Institution: IMF Working Paper
Model Used: A three-country open economy model (U.S., China, OEA) based on the framework of Obstfeld and Rogoff (2007)
Main Focus: Quantifying the required real exchange rate and terms of trade adjustments during a rebalancing process
Key Parameters:
- $\eta$: Elasticity of substitution between home and foreign tradables
- $\theta$: Elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods
- $\xi$: Elasticity of substitution between Chinese and OEA goods
- $\alpha$: Home bias in consumption
Conclusion: Symmetric appreciation by Emerging Asia leads to more balanced outcomes, while unilateral adjustments place greater pressure on one country. IO linkages moderate the effects of unilateral appreciation, but the model highlights the need for careful analysis of the relative price adjustments required to achieve global rebalancing.

Structure of the Paper

Introduction: Sets the context of global current account imbalances and the paper’s focus on relative price adjustments.
The Model:
- A simplified two-country model is introduced.
- A three-country model is developed, including nontradable goods and IO linkages.
Calibration: Details the estimation of trade elasticities and structural parameters.
Rebalancing and Relative Prices: Analyzes how exchange rates and terms of trade must adjust in different scenarios.
Introducing Input-Output Linkages: Discusses the role of IO linkages in trade flows and exchange rate dynamics.
Concluding Remarks: Summarizes findings and outlines limitations and future research directions.

Tables and Figures

Table 1: Calibration results
Figures:
- Figure 1: Responses to a reduction in the U.S. current account deficit
- Figure 2: Sensitivity to lower U.S. elasticity between domestic and foreign goods
- Figure 3: Change in home bias required to accommodate a reduction in the U.S. deficit
- Figure 4: Shares of domestic and imported intermediate inputs in tradable production
- Figure 5: Sensitivity to one-way IO linkages with a unilateral Chinese appreciation
- Figure 6: Sensitivity to two-way IO linkages with a unilateral Chinese appreciation