20250710-南华期货-铅风险管理报告_6页_1mb

South China Research: Lead market analysis dated July 10, 2025. Recommenders: Xiao Yufei (Z0018441) & Lin Jiawei (F03145451).

Latest Lead Price & Volatility:

• Shanghai Futures (主力合约): CNY 17230/ton, predicted range: 16300-17500, daily volatility 8.18% (13.4th percentile).
• LME Cash: USD 2058.5, daily volatility 0.71%.
• LME Inventory: Decreased 0.15% to 255100 tons.

Position Risk Management:

• Hedging Recommendations:
  • Producer: Bearish (fear price decline). Recommended action: Sell 7 contracts of 5%. Entry point: 17000. Tool: SHFE options.
  • Consumer: Bullish (fear price rise). Recommended action: Buy 50% exposure. Entry point: 16300. Tool: SHFE options.
• Inventory/Sourcing:
  • Producer: SOC High; Strategy: Sell if inventory high. Usage: SHFE/Options.
  • Consumer: Raw material low stock; Strategy: Buy if prices low. Usage: SHFE/Options.

Market Overview:

• Core Contradiction: Macro improvement (dollar weakening) outweighs fundamentals. Price sees support (cost, supply tightness) but demand is weak. Supply tightness from both Primary (high profit, expected resumption) and Secondary lead is noted, though scrap constraints limit cycle.
• Primary Lead: High operating rates, good by-product economics.
• Secondary Lead: Tight scrap supply, low confidence, low operating rates.

Key Drivers & Views:

• BULLISH Factors: Tight concentrate supply, weak demand
• BEARISH Factors: Uncertainty from electrics business, multiple downtrends, high inventories

Important News/Indicator:

• Inventory Build-up: China lead social stock +0.32/0.42万吨 in last 4 days. Weeks to 53303 tons.

Pivotal Market Data:

• TC Shortsfall: Imported TC -55%, Domestic TC 550 (CNY/ton)
• Processing Profits: Primary Lead ~82.7 CNY/ton, Secondary lead -1008 CNY/ton
• SMM Battery Scrap Avg: ~10100 CNY/ton (key input)
• Smelter Ratios: Battery manufacturing utilization rates (national/regional), lead/speedy battery production volumes, m/E inventory patterns.