2025-06-12-Jefferies-建筑与施工_规划路径_79页_5mb

Construction Market Summary: 20 Key Countries

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of construction demand drivers across the 20 most important countries, highlighting recent trends and long-term structural positioning. It also includes sector ratings, price targets, and valuations for key construction-related companies, such as housebuilders, building products, distributors, and infrastructure contractors.

Key Market Trends

United Kingdom

• PMI downturn eased in May, driven by improvements in the commercial and civil sectors.
• Residential market showed a slight negative YoY mortgage approvals, but house price inflation remained positive at +2.5% YoY.
• Material costs remained stable.
• Ratings: Barratt Redrow, Bellway, Crest Nicholson, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, and Vistry Group are rated Buy or Hold.
• Watkin Jones is rated Hold.

France

• Production index slightly declined, and PMI slipped MoM.
• Residential build permits increased by c. +30% YoY (on easy comps).
• Dwelling starts showed modest growth.
• RMI expectations returned to a positive outlook, more resilient than new builds.
• Ratings: CRH, Forterra, Geberit, Genuit, Heidelberg Materials, Ibstock, Saint-Gobain, Sika, and Volution are rated Buy. Kingspan and Holcim are rated Hold.

Germany

• PMI slightly declined MoM, but construction sentiment turned positive for the first time since 2022.
• Residential build permits and new orders showed YoY growth in March.
• Ratings: CRH, Forterra, Geberit, Genuit, Heidelberg Materials, Ibstock, Saint-Gobain, Sika, and Volution are rated Buy. Kingspan and Holcim are rated Hold.

Scandinavia

• Sweden: Production index continues to rise YoY, though at a slowing rate. Price expectations turned negative.
• Norway: Production index stable.
• Finland: Production index showed steady growth.
• Ratings: None specified for this region in the table.

Other European Markets

• Ireland: PMI turned negative, with housing activity dipping slightly for the first time in 8 months, but FTB mortgage approvals remained up c.5% YoY.
• Italy: PMI slightly more positive, and confidence indicator stable MoM.
• Poland: Residential build permits decreased slightly YoY, and housing starts declined MoM.
• Ratings: Not detailed for these countries.

United States

• Residential market remains weak, with value put in place down mid-single digits, housing permits and completions down 2.5% and 12.3%, respectively.
• Commercial trends mixed: Dodge index ticked up, while ABI declined by double digits in April.
• Ratings: Not detailed for this region in the table.

Canada

• Construction GDP remained stable.
• Residential permit values saw a sharp decline, but housing starts posted a solid increase.
• Ratings: Not detailed for this region in the table.

Mexico

• Construction production index slipped into a slight YoY contraction.
• Ratings: Not detailed for this region in the table.

Brazil

• Construction confidence slightly ticked down in May.
• Despite this, construction employment and credit outstanding still showed growth.
• Ratings: Not detailed for this region in the table.

Australia

• Dwellings approvals continued to see double-digit increases in April, though the pace of growth abated slightly.
• Non-residential building approvals rose significantly.
• Renovation approvals were marginally down YoY.
• Ratings: Not detailed for this region in the table.

China

• May PMI remained positive but eased MoM.
• House prices continued to decline at a slowing rate.
• Cement production rose mid-single-digit.
• Ratings: Not detailed for this region in the table.

India and Indonesia

• India: Continued growth in bank credit for construction, cement production, and housing starts.
• Indonesia: Slight decline in business activity, and housing starts decreased mid-single digits, but cement volumes showed a sequential YoY increase.
• Ratings: Not detailed for these regions in the table.

Key Companies and Ratings

UK Housebuilders

• Barratt Redrow: Buy
• Bellway: Buy
• Berkeley Group: Hold
• Crest Nicholson: Buy
• Persimmon: Buy
• Taylor Wimpey: Buy
• Vistry Group: Hold
• Watkin Jones: Hold

Pan-Euro Building Products

• CRH: Buy
• Forterra: Buy
• Geberit: Buy
• Genuit: Buy
• Heidelberg Materials: Buy
• Holcim: Hold
• Ibstock: Buy
• Kingspan: Hold
• Saint-Gobain: Buy
• Sika: Buy
• Volution: Buy

Pan-Euro Distributors

• Howden Joinery: Hold
• SIG: Hold
• Travis Perkins: Hold

Infrastructure Contractors

• ACS: Hold
• AD Ports: Buy
• Balfour Beatty: Buy
• Eiffage: Buy
• Ferrovial: Buy
• Hochtief: Hold
• Skanska: Hold
• Vinci: Buy

Summary of Key Metrics

Revenue Exposure (2025E)

• Australia: CRH (4%), Heidelberg (7%), Holcim (4%), Kingspan (8%), Saint-Gobain (3%)
• Belgium: Geberit (9%), Heidelberg (2%), Holcim (1%), Howden (1%), Kingspan (8%)
• Brazil: Saint-Gobain (4%), Sika (2%)

Price Targets and Valuations

• UK Housebuilders show a range of upside and downside potential, with Persimmon having the highest upside at 35%.
• Pan-Euro Building Products include CRH with a 22% upside and Saint-Gobain with a 42% upside.
• Pan-Euro Distributors show more moderate performance, with Howden Joinery and Travis Perkins rated Hold.
• Infrastructure Contractors show mixed performance, with Vinci and AD Ports rated Buy, while ACS and Hochtief are rated Hold.

Conclusion

The construction market across the 20 key countries shows a mix of steady performance, signs of recovery, and continued weakness in certain sectors. While some markets like the UK and France show positive momentum, others such as the US and Poland face challenges. The report provides detailed insights into market trends and highlights companies with strong potential for growth or cautionary signals for investors.