2025-05-19-Jefferies-建筑与施工规划路径_79页_7mb

Equity Research Summary: Building, Construction & Housebuilders

Date: May 19, 2025
Focus: Demand drivers, PMI trends, and cyclical/structural positioning in construction markets across major economies.

Key Market Insights

• Overall Demand Drivers: Reports indicate a mix of stabilizing and declining trends in demand across Europe and the US, influenced by mortgage rates, new build volumes, and PMI data.
• Cyclical Positioning: Markets show varying levels of improvement, with some regions like Germany and the US experiencing signs of a turnaround, while others face ongoing pressure in residential sectors.
• Structural Factors: Labor costs, material prices, and residential vs. commercial demand shifts are key factors shaping industry performance.

Regional Highlights

• European Union (EU): Mixed signals, with Germany showing strong PMI improvements. Finland, France, and Italy experienced declines in confidence and demand, while shorter-term data suggests moderate trends in employment and output.
• United Kingdom (UK): Residential market stabilization; UK PMI downturn stabilizing amid mortgage approval increases, though barriers remain.
• United States (US): Confidence in sales and margins remains strong, but new housing permits and starts are falling despite continued employment growth. PMI data indicates eroding momentum in the commercial sector.
• Rest of the World: Australia, Brazil, and Canada show moderate growth or stabilization in certain indices; China's PMI improved but marginal.

Company Ratings and Breakdown

• Key Players: Barratt Redrow (UK), Bellway, Berkeley Group, CRH (Ireland), ACS, Balfour Beatty, and others rated primarily as Buy or Hold.
• Sector Distribution: 60.64% of ratings are Buy, 34.98% Hold, and 4.37% Underperform across all covered entities.
• Market Trends: Focus on commercial resilience contrasted with residential slowdown; companies with exposure to commercial and institutional work are favored.

Analyst Notes

• Juan Ojeil, Priyal Woolf, Glynis Johnson, and Graham Hunt led the research team.
• Analyst certification includes management of compensation tied to firm performance, ensuring independence, with full risk disclosures provided separately in the report.

Conclusion

The construction sector is navigating a complex cycle mix, with pockets of strength expected in commercial and infrastructure work, weakening in residential.·Geopolitical factors continue to weigh on momentum, but early signs support medium-term earnings growth across select large-cap companies.