2025-06-12-Jefferies-街区之上_10页_195kb

European Property & Real Estate Market Summary

June 13, 2025
This report provides key updates from the Jefferies European Real Estate team on Continental Europe and the UK, focusing on recent events, market trends, and investment outlooks.

Key Events

• Land Securities: CEO Mark Allan discussed progress in transitioning the portfolio toward build-to-rent (BTR) residential, aiming for 1/3 of GAV through a combination of development and acquisition.
• TAG Immobilien: Positive feedback from CMD in Gdansk confirms Poland's housing shortage, strong rental demand, and expected price and rent increases starting in 2026. Buy rating maintained.
• Castellum: Shareholders are called to an Extraordinary General Meeting on July 18th to elect a new Board due to lack of confidence in leadership; Roger Akelius supports ceasing CEO Joacim Sjöberg and advocating for a split into three companies.
• Sweden Logistics: Speculative warehouse construction has led to supply-demand mismatches and rising vacancy rates (10.3% nationally), with concerns over overcapacity post-COVID.
• French Mixed-Use: Immobilière Dassault acquired a €100m leased building in Paris, yielding ~4.8%, supported by prime retail and office locations.
• UK Logistics: Henderson Park completed acquisition of a 1.4m sq ft logistics site, strengthening its control over a high-demand area.

Market Trends

• The Swedish logistics market remains cautious due to high vacancy rates and aggressive pre-COVID development.
• European retail and office yields remain attractive, with Parisian prime locations offering strong income potential.
• Analyst views emphasize risks like wage growth correlations, credit conditions, and regulatory changes in Germany for real estate investments.

Valuation and Risks

• Land Securities: Price target based on DCF; keys risks include retail value volatility.
• TAG Immobilien: Low-risk profile supports Buy rating; risks involve CPI increases and credit downgrades.
• Castellum: Current rating is Underperform; upside risks include market splits and leadership changes.
• Overall market guidance suggests softening in certain sectors, with a focus on tenant-first strategies in logistics to mitigate risks.

Overall Outlook

The European property sector faces mixed signals, with opportunities in stabilized assets and urban developments countering soft guidance from logistics and office segments. Investors should monitor supply-demand balances and regulatory shifts for informed decision-making.