2024-01-30-莱坊-European_Office_Dashboard_-_Munich_Q4_2023_2页_552kb

报告摘要

Office Market Summary - Q4 2023

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the office market in Munich and Germany, focusing on occupier activity, rent trends, vacancy rates, and broader economic indicators. It is part of Knight Frank Research's quarterly update, highlighting key data points and market outlooks.

Key Figures

Take Up: 141,300 sqm in Q4 2023, representing a 65% increase compared to Q3 2023.
Annual Take Up: Total take up for the year 2023 is 465,800 sqm, which is 38% below the 2022 result.
Prime Rent: Increased to €564 per sqm per annum in Q4 2023.
Vacancy Rate: Remained stable at 5.8%, equivalent to 1.32 million sqm of vacant space.
- Central Locations: Vacancy rate is very low at 2.5%.
- 2024 Outlook: Vacancy rate is unlikely to exceed 6%, supported by increased demand and stable development pipelines.

Main Market Trends

Take Up

The Munich office market experienced a significant increase in take up in Q4 2023 compared to Q3, reversing a downward trend observed in the first nine months of the year.
Despite this increase, annual take up is still below 2022 levels, indicating a continued slowdown in occupier activity.

Vacancy Rates

The overall vacancy rate in Munich remains stable at 5.8%, suggesting a balanced market.
Central areas maintain very low vacancy rates at 2.5%, reflecting strong demand for premium office space.
The vacancy rate is expected to remain below 6% in 2024 due to stable supply and rising demand.

Prime Rents

Prime rents increased in Q4 2023, reaching €564 per sqm per annum.
The trend is expected to continue into 2024, with rents likely to reach a new high.
This is attributed to ongoing demand for high-quality office spaces and stable letting behavior.

Economic Context

New Business Activity in Germany

New business starts in Germany remained strong in Q4 2023, above the five-year average, despite a weak broader economy.
This indicates positive business confidence and ongoing economic activity.

Employment Expectations in the Service Sector

Employment expectations in the German service sector slightly improved in December 2023 compared to Q3 2023.
However, these expectations remain well below 2022 levels, suggesting a weaker labor market.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in Germany rose to 5.9% at the end of Q4 2023.
This is well below the long-term average (LTA) of 8.2%, indicating relative labor market stability.

Services PMI

The German service sector PMI remained in contractionary territory at the end of Q4 2023.
This is due to weakness in the broader economy, political uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions.
Staff reductions in the service sector were the fastest since June 2020, as companies sought to cut costs.

Outlook

2024 Outlook: Take up levels are expected to be higher, but a real rebound is unlikely.
Rental Trends: Rents are expected to continue rising, while available space may remain stable or decline.
Vacancy Trends: Vacancy rates are expected to stay below 6%, driven by increased demand and stable supply.