2025-04-13-Incrementum-月度黄金指南针——2025年4月（英）_83页_2mb

In Gold We Trust Report Summary (April 2025)

Overview

• The In Gold We Trust Report 2025 emphasizes gold as a primary global currency and inflation hedge, with performance data showing significant returns in recent years.
• The report includes analysis of silver, mining stocks, macroeconomic factors, and long-term trends, alongside proprietary models for recession phases and asset allocation.

Key Highlights

1. Gold Performance:

   • Gold has demonstrated strong YTD performance (+19.0% in USD currencies), with an annualized return of ~10%.
   • Correlation with major currencies varies: strongest in CHF and JPY, weakest in EUR.

2. Silver Performance:

   • Silver shows mixed returns, with a YTD average of ~16% and annualized growth of ~8%.
   • Silver/gold ratio fluctuates significantly, often providing leading indicators during economic shifts.

3. Miners vs. Bullion:

   • Gold Miners (HUI) outperformed gold in developed markets (average YTD +21%) but lagged in 2024 (-0.99%).
   • Defensive positioning and ETF flows remain strong, especially during economic uncertainty.

4. Macroeconomic Trends

   • Inflation persistence in emerging markets exacerbates currency devaluations.
   • "Everything Bubble" indicators (e.g., Buffett Ratio) suggest asset market overheating, with commodities likely to outperform in next cycles.
   • US recession risk modeled via phases: gold absorbs idiosyncratic risks, especially in Phase 3 (defensive phase).

5. Long-Term Charts & Models:

   • Gold and silver have outperformed US stocks historically (since 2013).
   • Inflation Signal Model (Incrementum) confirms gold’s role in protecting against debt-driven degradation.
   • Silver’s outperformance in recessions peaks early, aligning with market dislocation phases.

Future Outlook

• Gold Price Projection: Expected to reach ~$4,821 by 2030, up 11% from 2025 levels.
• Recession Model: Phase-based analysis suggests allocating to gold in risk mitigation, especially in Phase 2–5.
• Sector Shifts: Gold miners may face beta-driven volatility, but Bitcoin market cap growth is outpacing silver returns.

Conclusion

The report underscores gold’s resilience against systemic risks, recommending strategic asset allocation during inflationary cycles. Models emphasize gold as an essential hedge in volatile environments.