美联储-20世纪90年代至20世纪20年代通货膨胀目标制的演变_发展与新挑战（英）-2025_53页_1mb

The Evolution of Inflation Targeting from the 1990s to 2020s: Developments and New Challenges

1. Introduction
Inflation targeting (IT), adopted initially in New Zealand, became a predominant monetary policy strategy in advanced and large emerging market economies. IT success hinges on core elements like transparent communication, institutional commitment, and accountability. Challenges emerged in calibration and communication, particularly with quantitative easing/tightening, forward guidance, and financial stability.

2. Evolution Prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

• Adoption in Advanced Economies: Success in WWII countries (e.g., New Zealand, Canada) led to adoption in Germany, Switzerland, USA, UK, and Sweden by the early 2000s. Gains from experience stabilized inflation expectations.
• Challenges:
  • Delays in signaling/ accountability due to monetary policy lags.
  • Risks of rigid rules or excessive discretion.
  • Potential for increased output fluctuations with supply shocks.
  • Concerns about low inflation (e.g., Japan) or too low inflation.

3. Developments After the GFC

• Advanced Economies: Responses to the crisis introduced nonconventional policies:
  • Forward guidance: Time-based and data-based guidance was widely employed to enhance transparency and support accommodative policies.
  • Quantitative easing (QE): Asset purchases provided stimulus via signaling and portfolio balance effects.

4. Challenges in Future Application

• Structural Changes: Technological shifts including AI may introduce new uncertainties to business cycles and inflation dynamics.
• Fiscal & Financial Dominance: Overlapping fiscal and monetary policy goals risk undermining central bank independence and price stability.
• Quantitative Easing Planning and Exit: Debates remain regarding calibration, communication, and structuring of exit strategies.
• Transmission Mechanisms & Scenarios Analysis: Financial stability factors and complex global scenarios require enhanced integration of monetary policy tools with disclosures.

Conclusion
Inflation targeting has maintained its effectiveness by adjusting to new contexts, however, evolving frameworks may be constrained by fiscal dominance, moral hazard issues, and the diminishing credibility gap between inflation expectations and monetary policy stance in the face of expansive government policies. Communication remains central in navigating these complexities.