2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_Staff_Report_Staff_Supplement_Press_Release_on_the_Executive_Board_Discussion_88页_2mb

Summary of Ireland's Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement

Core Content

The sixth review under the Extended Arrangement for Ireland was conducted by the IMF staff, with discussions ending on April 26, 2012, and the staff report finalized on May 30, 2012. The review focused on Ireland's progress in fiscal, financial, and structural reforms, as well as the challenges it faces in terms of economic recovery and market access. The staff supported the completion of the review, with a purchase amount of SDR 1.191 billion (about €1.4 billion).

Main Views and Key Information

Ireland's Economic Performance and Challenges

• Fiscal Performance: Ireland met all fiscal targets for the first half of 2012. The 2011 general government deficit was 13.1 percent of GDP, well within the program ceiling, with a significant over-performance due to strong revenue collection and lower-than-expected expenditures.
• Financial Sector: Despite improved capitalization, the financial sector remains weak, with low profitability and rising non-performing loans (NPLs). The PCAR banks reported a Core Tier I capital ratio of 16 percent at end-2011, above the regulatory minimum, but their net interest margin (NIM) was only 0.9 percent, among the lowest in Europe.
• Structural Reforms: Structural reforms aimed at enhancing growth and employment are continuing. The authorities are developing a consolidation package for 2013-15 to achieve the 2012 fiscal targets.
• Market Access: Renewed euro area tensions have increased Irish bond spreads, which have risen to levels higher than at the start of the EU-IMF program. This poses a challenge for accessing bond markets at reasonable cost in 2013 and beyond.
• Public Concerns: Public concerns about austerity are influencing the May 31 referendum on the European Fiscal Stability Treaty, which could impact Ireland's ability to resume Treasury bill issuance in 2012.

Economic Indicators

• GDP Growth: Real GDP growth was 0.7 percent in 2011, driven by net exports and stock rebuilding. Domestic demand weakened in the second half of the year, leading to a return to 2009-10 levels.
• Inflation: Inflation averaged 1.75 percent y/y in the first four months of 2012, with energy accounting for most of the increase.
• Unemployment: Unemployment remained high, with over 60 percent long-term unemployment and 30 percent youth unemployment. The standardized unemployment rate was 14.4 percent in the first four months of 2012.
• Competitiveness: Competitiveness indicators showed improvement, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. The relative unit labor cost in manufacturing decreased, but export shares have not yet increased significantly.
• Housing Market: House prices declined by 16.4 percent y/y in April 2012, with prices in Dublin stabilizing. Mortgage arrears increased to 10.2 percent of mortgage accounts and 13.7 percent of mortgage balances. Loan restructurings rose to 12.6 percent, but many restructured loans remained in arrears.
• Credit Market: Credit to households and corporations continued to contract. SME credit saw a marginal increase in Q4 2011, mainly due to credit to manufacturing. Credit standards remained stable, but credit demand weakened.

Policy Discussions

• Financial Sector Reforms: The mission reviewed ongoing financial sector work, including personal insolvency reforms, to ensure sustainable lending conditions.
• Fiscal Policy: Discussions focused on the outlook for 2012 and the credibility of the medium-term fiscal consolidation plan.
• Structural Reforms: Continued efforts were made to enhance growth and employment through structural reforms.

Risks and Outlook

• Euro Area Tensions: Risks to Ireland's program are heightened by the ongoing financial market tensions in the euro area. The lack of a broader European stabilization plan may hinder Ireland's ability to regain market access.
• Market Access: Entering bond markets at reasonable cost in 2013 will require improved market conditions and deeper financial sector reforms.
• Sustainability: The continued decline in household net wealth and the high debt burden remain concerns. The authorities are working to reduce the debt burden and improve financial stability.

Program Modalities

• The purchase amount for the sixth review was SDR 1.191 billion (about €1.4 billion).
• The staff report was approved by Ajai Chopra and Lorenzo Giorgianni.
• The Irish authorities consented to the publication of the Staff Report.

Conclusion

Ireland's policy implementation has been strong, and quantitative targets for the review were met. However, the country continues to face significant challenges, including weak growth, high unemployment, and rising bond spreads. The outcome of the May 31 referendum on the European Fiscal Stability Treaty and the state of the financial sector will be critical in determining the next steps and the feasibility of resuming market financing. The staff supports the authorities' request and recommends continued reform efforts to ensure long-term economic stability and growth.