20240530-IMF-Ecuador_Request_for_an_Extended_Arrangement_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Ecuador_122页_3mb

报告摘要

IMF Country Report No. 24/146: Ecuador

Core Content Overview

The IMF Executive Board approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Ecuador, with access equivalent to SDR 3 billion (about US$4 billion, 430 percent of quota). The immediate disbursement is SDR 753 million (equivalent to US$1 billion). This follows the completion of a previous 27-month EFF program in December 2022, which had helped Ecuador stabilize its economy and implement fiscal and structural reforms. The new program aims to address current macroeconomic and fiscal challenges, including a severe security crisis, liquidity constraints, and fiscal vulnerabilities.

Main Objectives of the Program

The key objectives of the new EFF arrangement are:

Strengthen fiscal sustainability while protecting vulnerable groups.
Safeguard dollarization and macroeconomic stability.
Rebuild liquidity buffers.
Enhance financial stability and integrity.
Advance the structural reform agenda to promote sustainable and inclusive growth.

Key Policies and Measures

Fiscal Measures

The authorities have implemented a 3 percentage point increase in the VAT rate, raising it to 15 percent in April 2024.
Additional temporary revenue measures are expected to generate around US$2.2 billion in non-oil revenue in 2024.
A limited set of tax incentives has been introduced to stimulate growth and youth employment.
A bill allowing private electricity generation was introduced to mitigate blackouts.
The government has improved the targeting of fuel subsidies to protect the most vulnerable.
The tax on transfers abroad (ISD) was increased to stabilize foreign exchange reserves.

Structural Reforms

The financial sector will be strengthened through improved oversight and coordination among agencies, enhanced prudential frameworks, and financial deepening.
The institutional framework will be improved, with a focus on governance, transparency, public financial management, and public procurement.
Anti-corruption legislation (COIP) and updated public procurement resolutions have been introduced.
Audits of state-owned entities, such as the oil company and healthcare expenditure, are being advanced.

Security and Social Policies

A national state of emergency was declared in January 2024 in response to a surge in violence and crime, later extended.
A referendum on security policies in April 2024 received broad support, indicating public backing for the government's security agenda.
Efforts are being made to expand the social safety net through cash transfer programs targeting families in need.
The government is also working to improve the targeting of fuel subsidies to protect the most vulnerable populations.

Key Economic and Fiscal Developments

Economic Performance

Real GDP growth slowed to 2.4 percent in 2023, down from 6.2 percent in 2022.
A sharp economic slowdown continued into 2024, with real GDP contracting by 0.7 percent in Q4 2023.
High-frequency indicators such as credit growth, local sales, and vehicle sales remained weak in early 2024.
Nationwide blackouts reappeared in April 2024 due to energy shortages.

Inflation

Inflation moderated during 2023 due to lower international energy prices, peaking at 4.2 percent in 2022.
In April 2024, headline inflation accelerated to 2.7 percent due to the VAT rate hike.
Inflation is projected to average 2.4 percent in 2024, then converge to around 1.5 percent over the medium term.

Current Account and External Position

The current account (CA) surplus increased slightly in 2023 to 1.9 percent of GDP, but the reserve position deteriorated.
The CA surplus is expected to rise to 2.1 percent of GDP in 2024, and reach 2.5 percent over the medium term, driven by non-oil exports, tourism, and oil production.
Gross international reserves fell to US$4.5 billion by end-2023, but recovered somewhat to US$5.3 billion by end-March 2024.

Public Debt and Liquidity

Public debt remains among the lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean, at 55.3 percent of GDP in 2023.
A debt-for-nature swap reduced external bonds by US$970 million (0.8 percent of GDP).
The 2023 COMYF reform prohibited new central bank financing of the government, but the authorities amended the legislation in December 2023 to reprofile public debt owed to the BCE, reducing near-term financing needs.
The government has drawn down liquidity buffers to meet financing needs, with government deposits at the BCE declining by US$2.9 billion in 2023.

Outlook and Risks

Economic Outlook

Growth is expected to recover in the second half of 2024, with a gradual increase to 2.5 percent in the medium term.
The CA surplus is projected to increase, reaching 2.5 percent of GDP over the medium term.
Inflation is expected to decline to 1.5 percent in the medium term, below levels in trading partners.

Key Risks

Downside risks include further deterioration in the security situation, electricity crisis, political fragmentation, and unexpected declines in oil prices or production.
These risks could delay reforms, increase fiscal deficits, and impair liquidity.
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected global growth, higher oil prices, and faster improvement of the security situation, which could boost growth and improve market confidence.

Program Modalities and Implementation

The program is subject to the Exceptional Access Policy, as existing IMF credit exceeds normal access levels.
The staff appraisal highlights the strong commitment of the authorities and the broad support for the program's objectives.
The quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for 2024–2025 are outlined in the report, with a focus on fiscal consolidation, liquidity management, and structural reforms.

Conclusion

The new 48-month EFF arrangement for Ecuador aims to support the country's efforts to stabilize the economy, safeguard dollarization, rebuild liquidity buffers, and advance structural reforms. The program is built on the achievements of the 2020 EFF, with a focus on fiscal sustainability, financial stability, and inclusive growth. The success of the program will depend on strong implementation, continued engagement with creditors, and effective communication to the public.