2017世界贸易统计回顾（英文版）-9mb

World Trade Statistical Review Summary

Core Content

The World Trade Statistical Review is the WTO's flagship publication that provides a comprehensive analysis of global trade trends, statistics, and developments. It offers insights into both merchandise and commercial services trade, highlighting changes in trade dynamics, participation of developing economies, and the impact of trade policies and global economic conditions on trade growth.

Main Points

• Global Trade Overview:

  • World trade has continued to support economic growth and development, helping to reduce poverty.
  • World merchandise exports increased from USD 8 trillion in 2006 to USD 15.46 trillion in 2016, while commercial services exports rose from USD 2.9 trillion to USD 4.77 trillion.
  • In 2016, global merchandise trade volume growth slowed to 1.3%, the lowest since 2008, and was half of the 2.6% growth in 2015.
  • The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth fell to 0.6 in 2016, the first time since 2001 it has dropped below 1.

• Trade Growth by Sector:

  • Manufactured goods and agricultural products saw the highest growth in value terms (37% and 67%, respectively), while fuels and mining products declined by 10%.
  • Commercial services grew more than 64% since 2006, with travel and ICT services being the fastest-growing categories.

• Trade Concentration:

  • The top ten traders accounted for over 50% of global trade in both merchandise and commercial services.
  • Developing economies increased their share of global merchandise trade to 41% and commercial services to 34%, but Least Developed Countries (LDCs) still had a very low share (below 1%).

• Regional Trade Dynamics:

  • The EU and NAFTA continue to dominate regional trade agreements.
  • Trade within the EU accounted for 63% of its total exports in 2015, while in NAFTA, ASEAN, SADC, and MERCOSUR, it accounted for 50%, 24%, 18%, and 14% respectively.

• Global Economic Context:

  • Global GDP growth in 2016 was 2.3%, down from 2.7% in 2015 and below the 2.8% average since 1980.
  • Trade growth was closely linked to GDP growth, but the relationship has weakened in recent years.
  • Investment and commodity prices were key factors in the slowdown of trade growth, with investment being the most trade-intensive component of demand.

• Trade Policy Developments:

  • The WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) is expected to boost global trade growth by up to 2.7 percentage points by 2030.
  • The report emphasizes the need for improved statistical data on digital trade to support better policymaking in this area.

• Challenges in Measurement:

  • The report acknowledges the difficulties in measuring digital trade accurately and calls for enhanced methodologies and international collaboration.
  • The WTO's inter-agency task force with the OECD is working to address these challenges.

Key Information

• WTO Membership:

  • WTO members account for 98.2% of global merchandise trade, with Asia, Europe, and North America representing 88% of this total.

• Data Sources and Methodology:

  • All data are sourced from multilateral, national, and private institutions.
  • The report uses the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) for merchandise trade classification.
  • Statistical data are provided on a customs basis, with merchandise exports reported at f.o.b. and imports at c.i.f..
  • Data for the latest year are provisional.

• Methodological Notes:

  • Symbols used in the report include: ... for not available or growth rates exceeding 500%, 0 for zero or rounded to zero, - for not applicable, and $ for US dollars.
  • The report includes statistical tables and charts that provide detailed data and visual representations.

• Future Outlook:

  • Trade indicators in early 2017 showed more positive signs, with a 2.4% estimated growth for the year.
  • The Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) is expected to enhance trade efficiency and growth.

Conclusion

The World Trade Statistical Review highlights the complex and evolving nature of global trade, emphasizing the importance of accurate data, effective policies, and the growing role of developing economies. It underscores the need for improved measurement of digital trade and the potential impact of trade facilitation initiatives on future trade growth.